Kohv disputes the claim made by Trump — and echoed by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio — that NATO has failed to assist the United States in its time of need. "We must remember that NATO Article 5, which requires all alliance members to come to the defense of one, was invoked precisely when the US needed help," Kohv stated. "This happened after the September 11, 2001 attacks, making their claim fundamentally false."

Kohv questioned why allies should be expected to assist the U.S. in Iran, given that Washington initiated the conflict and launched attacks without informing its NATO partners.

He noted that even if Trump wanted to withdraw from the alliance, a rapid exit is highly improbable because the US president lacks the unilateral power to do so.

"Such a move would require at least a two-thirds majority in Congress, which currently does not seem politically feasible," Kohv added. "However, with the support of the Pentagon and the State Department, the White House could begin obstructing various NATO initiatives, agreements, and troop deployments. The US's desire to withdraw forces from Europe has been discussed for a long time. Naturally, it cannot happen all at once, nor would that be sensible, but a partial withdrawal is possible."

Regarding the ongoing war with Iran and the need to keep the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz open to shipping, a coalition of countries is being formed at the initiative of the British prime minister to address the crisis.

According to Kohv, this appears to be the first major meeting focused on diplomatic and political solutions for keeping the strait navigable. "The U.S. Secretary of Defense made a highly populist statement, claiming the missiles they aimed to destroy in Iran wouldn't even reach Europe, let alone the U.S.," the researcher said. "None of the root causes that prompted the U.S. intervention have been resolved. Some objectives were partially met during an attack last summer, but ironically, the Strait of Hormuz was open before this conflict began. Now, reopening it has become the primary goal for ending the war. It is quite paradoxical."

Kohv finds it hard to imagine the U.S. simply abandoning the region, given its numerous military bases there, which Iran has regularly bombarded in recent weeks. The U.S. is compelled to maintain some level of presence. Furthermore, if Iran retains control over maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the resulting disruptions will inevitably hit U.S. consumers through higher prices.

Why, then, did the U.S. opt for a military operation in the first place? Kohv noted that while Iran has long been a thorn in Washington's side, it is possible Trump simply hoped for a quick, victorious war without foreseeing its full consequences.

One potential scenario is a U.S. ground operation to seize Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub. "If we look at current US troop movements, this is very much on the table," Kohv explained. "The units deploying there — Marines and elements of the 82nd Airborne Division — are designed specifically to quickly seize and hold territory. Capturing Kharg Island is an entirely realistic goal and likely wouldn't be overly difficult for the US military. The real challenge, however, would be holding the island while Iran bombards it from the mainland."

Assessing Iran's current military strength is extremely difficult, Kohv added, as it is likely that even U.S. intelligence lacks precise estimates.

"What is clear is that the initial aim was to destroy Iran's air force, which Israel had already significantly degraded last summer. Next, the navy was targeted for destruction — this has now been accomplished, yet the Strait of Hormuz remains closed," the expert noted. "Regarding missile launch capabilities and weapon replenishment, we can speculate about the impact of US and Israeli strikes, but the reality is that Iran maintains substantial operational capacity in its underground bases."

Regarding the duration of the conflict, Kohv suggested it is more likely to last months rather than years. However, he acknowledged that historical precedent argues otherwise, as conflicts in the Middle East are rarely short-lived.

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