Foreign ministry: Quick end to Iran war unlikely

Donald Trump clearly underestimated Iran's resilience and there seems to be no end in sight for the conflict, said Ministry of Foreign Affairs Secretary General Jonatan Vseviov.
Asked whether Donald Trump underestimated Iran when launching the attack, Jonatan Vseviov said: "This requires assessing what the objective was in the first place. It seems to me the answer is yes, because it is unlikely that such a prolonged conflict was intended."
The secretary general acknowledged that starting a war is easier than ending one. "I think the potential for escalation — that is, for the current situation to worsen — clearly exists in this region and, personally, I do not yet see an end to it. The end could come unexpectedly, perhaps in the form of some kind of breakthrough, but at the moment I consider that rather unlikely," he said.
"If the hope was to create a shock within Iran's system that would cause the regime to collapse and be replaced by something more agreeable, then it seems to me that this is no longer very likely. And although the Iranian regime is no longer nearly as powerful as it was at the start of the war — a large part of its military potential has been destroyed — it still retains the capacity to sow disruption and launch drones and missiles across the region, as we are seeing today, and eliminating that capacity completely is extraordinarily difficult," Vseviov noted.
"So I believe the American president is doing what American presidents in such a position typically do — projecting that all options are on the table. But which option he will actually choose and what will follow, I cannot predict," he added.
At the same time, the political and economic impacts of the war initiated by the United States and Israel are rapidly increasing, the ministry official said.
"The oil production that has had to be halted or the infrastructure that has been destroyed and not restored — its impact grows very quickly over time. So I think Iran is in fact betting that at some point it will not be Israel's and the United States' — and more broadly the international community's — military capacity to strike Iran that runs out, but rather their political patience," Vseviov said.
"In that light, it seems to me the Americans are trying to show that they have no problem if what is happening there continues for weeks. But I believe that problem does in fact exist /.../ and as a result it seems to me that the number of countries in the world seeking some kind of solution — trying to reach some form of agreement or, to put it more diplomatically, de-escalate — is growing," Vseviov said.
According to him, both European countries and much of the rest of the world, as well as the Gulf states, are seeking a resolution to the war.
"When you consider the hundreds of billions, if not trillions, that these countries have invested in their infrastructure over many years — assets that are now either destroyed or at risk of being destroyed — it is understandable that their desire to bring this to a swift end is genuine. It seems to me that a large part of the world now echoes this sentiment. The problem is that if anyone had a silver bullet or a key to simply switch it off, it would already have been used. But as I said before, it is easier to set something on fire than to put it out," Vseviov said.
Disclosure of Kallas and Rubio spat harms relations
Commenting on reports that emerged from Friday's G7 foreign ministers' meeting about a Ukraine-related exchange between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, Vseviov said the leak had harmed bilateral relations.
"In practice, foreign policy makers speak to one another quite candidly and the higher the level, the more direct they are. So I don't think there was anything unusual about this in itself — views are exchanged on what is happening and what should be done next; that is how positions are coordinated," said Jonatan Vseviov. "It is a fairly small circle of traditionally like-minded countries whose representatives also know each other reasonably well on a personal level. They do speak frankly," he added, commenting on the inner workings of the G7.
"There is nothing in that, in itself, that warrants special attention. The fact that it immediately reached the media is what is telling. Someone deliberately leaked it to the press. And it is unlikely that whoever did so had good intentions regarding EU–U.S. relations," Vseviov noted.
Sources suggest Rubio, after being asked by Kallas when the U.S. will run out of patience for Russia in a situation where the latter has done nothing to move closer to peace in Ukraine, got visibly irritated and snapped back that Europe is welcome to try and end the war itself if it thinks it can do a better job.
Speaking about the ongoing war in Ukraine, Vseviov said that a critical mass of European countries still understands its importance for the region, but efforts must nevertheless continue to pressure Russia and support Ukraine.
Commenting on the anti-Trump protests in the United States on Saturday, which drew millions of participants, Vseviov said they should be viewed in the context of U.S. domestic politics and the midterm elections taking place this fall.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski, Mait Ots








