On Monday, it was reported that Ukraine had attacked Russia's largest oil terminal at the Port of Primorsk on the Baltic Sea, 50 kilometers from Finland.

The port is central to Russia's so-called "shadow fleet" of ageing tankers used to skirt international sanctions, the BBC said. It is approximately 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine's nearest border point.

There are also reports that Ust-Luga Port near the Estonian border has temporarily halted operations.

If both ports are closed, this will have a big impact on Russia's oil exports, Vare said, which are used to fund its war in Ukraine.

"Over 60 percent of Russian oil is exported through these two ports. This means ships are also held up. Shadow fleet vessels waiting off [Estonia's national park] Lahemaa will be forced to wait even longer and continue posing a risk," he said.

Vare could not estimate Russia's financial losses. But he said that the tankers at Primorsk have a capacity of 120,000 tons and the value of a single cargo is currently between $50 million and $60 million.

The economist said the suspension of port operations poses a problem for Russia's state budget, as the country imposes a tax on oil exports.

Russian oil facilities by the port of Primorsk now.

Yes, it's just me being Zelensky's politruk. pic.twitter.com/hmcD7YMraa

— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) March 23, 2026

"This is their largest source of revenue. But if a ship cannot depart because it is not loaded, the tax is also not collected. The damage is therefore greater. It affects not only cargo owners and traders, but also the state. Every day of delay is a problem," he said.

If Russia's Baltic Sea ports have halted operations, this will also affect the global oil market.

"This is a shift in logistics, because at first we do not know the extent of the damage or how long it will take to restore operations. It is likely that before new cargo is sold, part of the floating storage already at sea on tankers will be used," Vare said.

The economist said the storage tanks at Primorsk are very large, and if one tank is on fire, virtually no activity can take place in the surrounding area. The port infrastructure, such as the loading jetty or pumps, may also be damaged.

"In that case, they simply cannot load. This is life-threatening work, especially since they are primarily handling crude oil," he said.

Navigation in and out of Primorsk is difficult, and large tankers cannot be left there for long.

"I do not think this has completely shut down the port, but safety rules are such that after incidents like this, it usually takes two to three days before operations resume," Vare added.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!