Economist: Oil prices are not high at the moment

The situation in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices, but they are roughly the same as this time last year, SEB's Chief Economist Mihkel Nestor said.
Nestor does not believe that the war in Iran will cause a long-term increase in fuel prices. He told Thursday's "Ringvaade" that he agrees with U.S. President Donald Trump's claim that the spike will last only a couple of weeks.
"This time I might even want to agree with Donald [Trump] if we look at what is happening in the markets today," Nestor told the TV show.
The economist said the current market price of crude oil is not very high.
"If we convert the price of a barrel of oil today into euros and compare it with a year ago, we are roughly in the same place. It was somewhere around €70 a year ago as well, so there has not been a very big change," he explained.
Nestor said the price of oil is particularly important to Trump for domestic political reasons: "Midterm elections are coming up in America and his voters do not like expensive fuel. That is one thing that really matters to them."
The economist said, in addition to oil and gas prices, the price of aluminum has also risen due to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. The situation is likely to impact gas prices more than oil.
"The situation is more complicated with natural gas. Here in Estonia, over the years, we have also had discussions where all kinds of LNG terminals and wonderful ships were considered, but there are very few of them and they are very expensive," Nestor said.
He did not foresee the government offering fuel stockpiles to gas stations.
"When it comes to oil, we do not currently have a problem. There is plenty of it in various reserves. Today's price level is completely normal," Nestor said.
He added that the government should rather worry about gas, because in addition to Estonia, the winter was cold across Europe. As a result, gas reserves are running low everywhere.
"It cannot be ruled out that somewhere someone really is in a difficult situation. The tank is empty and nothing is coming in for a while," Nestor said.
The economist said tankers could begin moving through the Strait of Hormuz again in about a month, and fuel prices could stabilize.
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Editor: Helen Wright, Märten Hallismaa
Source: Ringvaade










