Early on Monday morning, the price of crude oil rose above $115 per barrel due to the war in the Middle East. This is the highest oil price since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022.

On Monday afternoon, a liter of 95 octane gasoline cost €1.759 at Circle K gas stations. At Olerex, it cost €1.799.

Last Friday, a liter of 95 octane gasoline was selling for €1.554, €1.599, and €1.649 at gas stations in different parts of Tallinn.

On Monday afternoon, a liter of diesel fuel cost €1.879 at Circle K and €1.899 at Olerex gas stations.

Last Friday, the price of a liter of diesel at Circle K gas stations in Tallinn ranged from €1.654 to €1.729, while at Olerex it was between €1.679 and €1.729.

According to Indrek Sassi, Circle K's motor fuel pricing manager, the biggest driver of the price increase has been events in the Middle East, particularly the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

"As there is currently very little traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz and, according to the latest news, Saudi Arabia has also redirected its oil exports from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea via a pipeline, this has had a strong impact on price increases," explained Sassi.

According to Sassi, some analysts are even predicting an increase to $150 per barrel.

Sassi also said that end products, including jet fuel, gasoline and diesel fuel are traded on separate markets. In addition to crude oil, the prices of those products are also affected by the capacity of refineries and logistics chains.

"The most important price components when it comes to Estonian fuel retail are the purchase price of finished products, the exchange rate, the cost of meeting renewable energy requirements, excise duty on motor fuels, minimum stockholding tax and VAT. The share of state taxes remains at 40–50 percent, with the retailer's margin at around 5 percent," said Sassi.

No fuel shortage expected in near future

Over the weekend, recommendations to stock up on fuel began circulating on social media. However, Alan Vaht, a member of gas station chain Terminal's management board, told ERR there is no reason to fear a fuel shortage in Estonia in the near future.

"Crude oil supplies have been severely affected. There is no need to worry about running out of end products, and a good example of that is today's (Monday's – ed.) decision by the International Energy Agency. There will be an extraordinary meeting tomorrow, but today it was announced to the public that 400 million barrels of various fuels will be used to alleviate the energy crisis we are currently facing. Still, this is one of the biggest energy crises in history," said Vaht.

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