More importantly, since March and April consumer gas prices were set earlier in the year, uncertainty following the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran's counter-strikes have also served to make future price forecasts difficult.

Fuel retailer Alexela is currently offering household gas at a fixed monthly price of €0.669 per cubic meter for March. Its competitor, Elenger (formerly Eesti Gaas), is offering a price of €0.598 per cubic meter, however.

As for April, the situation will reverse: Alexela's domestic gas price will be €0.550 per cubic meter, whereas Elenger's price level to consumer is to remain unchanged.

A price gap of this size between gas sellers in Estonia is unusual, as the two dominant suppliers' prices typically move in step, with differences only at the margins.

Alexela electricity and gas trader Magnus Truupõld told ERR that they have not changed the principles concerning their pricing policy. The larger price difference mainly stems from the point when each seller fixes the price for the month ahead, and what market information that price is based on.

"Gas prices have been very volatile in recent weeks, and daily movements can be several tens of percent in either direction, which means the price level is significantly affected by whether the price is set on a cheaper or more expensive day," Truupõld explained.

Elenger spokesperson Kersti Tumm also said the unusual price differentials are the result of the manner and timing in which companies procure gas and manage price risks, having a greater impact during volatile times.

"Elenger's goal has been to keep the customer price as stable as possible; the price of our flexible package for household customers will remain at the March level in April," Tumm added.

According to Truupõld, Alexela locked in its April price before the Iran strikes, on February 27, when market signals indicated that the April price could turn out to be cheaper than the preceding month.

"Prices on the Dutch gas exchange TTF remained at a reasonable level, and with warmer weather, the additional premiums in the Baltic-Finnish price region on the EEX gas exchange relative to TTF also decreased rapidly," Truupõld noted.

Following this, however, the market's risk premium rose sharply due to geopolitical developments, and gas prices moved upward again. Truupõld noted that in a situation like that, the monthly prices of different sellers can temporarily diverge more widely.

According to representatives of both companies, it is currently very difficult to forecast prices for the coming months, as price levels depend on how quickly the war with Iran will end and whether, and to what extent, energy production infrastructure will be damaged in that region—something which is "impossible to predict," Tumm said.

Truupõld added that in practice, the price level in the coming months will largely depend on whether the Iran continuation regime continues attacks on LNG tankers and Qatari gas infrastructure, or whether those attacks get halted for whatever reason. He noted that should the market risk premium fall and LNG supply chains function normally, seasonal spring and summer patterns usually bring less price pressure because consumption is lower.

"However, if tensions deepen and disruptions occur in LNG logistics or infrastructure, prices may remain higher, and fluctuations could continue," Truupõld concluded.

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