The world has reached a point where the fate of small states no longer depends solely on their ability to assess the balance of power, but also on the courage to defend their principles. Every turning point in history forces small states to answer an existential question: to adapt to the world as it is at any given moment or to stand up for the kind of world that ought to be.

Estonia's historical experience provides a sober and mercilessly clear answer. In the 1930s, we tried to adapt. We hoped that if we were restrained, cautious and "reasonable," we would be left in peace. The result was loss — the loss of our state, our freedom and the fate of tens of thousands of people.

That experience tells us unequivocally that when a small state abandons its values and the principles of a democratic rule-of-law state, it ultimately abandons its security as well.

Estonia's foreign policy has often been described as values-based. People frequently ask — sometimes in good faith, sometimes ironically — whether values have any place in a world driven by power.

Estonia's foreign policy has never been naive idealism, but it has not been — and can never become — cynical power politics guided solely by self-interest. The foundation of Estonia's foreign policy has been and must remain values-based realism. Realism that understands power, recognizes threats and at the same time knows that for a small state, values are instruments of survival.

As President Lennart Meri said: "The greatest strength of a small state is its moral authority." This is not a poetic metaphor. It is a strategic truth.

We live in a world where the international order established after World War II is eroding before our eyes. Rules meant to protect the weak are being broken with impunity. Force is once again being used to change borders. Authoritarian states speak ever more openly about democracy as weakness and freedom as a luxury.

Russia's war of conquest against peace in Europe is soon entering its fifth year, while its effort to destroy the Ukrainian state began 12 years ago. China, which supports Russia in this war, is gradually shaping a world order in which human rights are treated as an internal matter and power confers legitimacy. In the Middle East and East Asia, tensions are accumulating that could rapidly escalate. The technological revolution — artificial intelligence, quantum computing, autonomous weapons — is transforming the nature of conflict and war faster than our institutions can adapt.

Taken together, this means the world has entered an era of disorder. In such a world, the greatest mistake a small state can make is to believe the storm will pass it by.

After regaining independence, Estonia's choice was simple and uncompromising: never again alone. That meant joining NATO, the European Union and the political community of free nations. But "never again alone" is not a condition — it is daily work.

Maintaining and strengthening the allied space is not an abstract concept. Allies are relationships that must be sustained. Trust that must be reinforced and contributions that must be made. That is why Estonia's decision to invest more than 5 percent of GDP in national defense starting this year to strengthen its defense capabilities and to host allied forces is not only a military move, but a deeply political message: we are a credible ally.

Estonia's greatest foreign policy challenge in this era of upheaval is to do everything possible to ensure that the allied space deterring the enemy at our borders does not weaken or fracture. This is the shared will of the Nordic and Baltic space that thinks as we do.

The restoration of Estonia's independence and the subsequent strengthening of our security through NATO enlargement would not have been possible without the support and international engagement of the United States. The U.S. is now undergoing one of the most significant internal transformations in its 250-year history, with inevitable consequences for its allies.

We know how significant the U.S. role has been and continues to be in defending the free world. But we must be honest: in a changed world, the U.S. can no longer single-handedly fulfill the role it assumed at the end of World War II.

The common adversaries of our world seek to drive Europe and America apart and push the U.S. out of Europe. That would give Russia, operating with China's protective backing, the best opportunity to realize its long-standing strategic dream of gaining security-political control over all of Europe. For Estonia and other states along Russia's borders, this would mean an existential threat rising to a critical level.

That is why it is not in Estonia's interest to either idealize or dramatize America. Estonia's interest is to keep the United States as deeply engaged as possible in European security, regardless of which administration holds power.

In practical terms, this means three things for Estonia's foreign policy. First, Estonia must continue to be a reliable and strong NATO ally that contributes more, not less. Second, Estonia must work with European allies to ensure that Europe's growing defense capability reduces the burden on America, not replaces America.

Third, at every level — political, military and societal — Estonia must speak honestly with Washington. The United States' presence in Europe is not charity; it is an investment in its own security. Turning its back on Europe would amount to strategic suicide. NATO is a force multiplier for the United States. Europe is America's strategic rear. And Estonia is on the front line of that alliance.

In this era of upheaval, European countries face an essential choice: to develop as a unified continent into a geopolitical actor or to become marginalized in internal divisions as a geopolitical object whose future is decided by others.

If the European Union wishes to rise to the level of a geopolitical actor, it must make choices that are politically difficult but strategically unavoidable. The most critical question is whether Europe can win the war devastating the continent or whether the aggressor will impose on Ukraine — and thereby on all of Europe — a humiliating, unjust peace that carries existential danger for entire European nations, including us in Estonia.

Russia's primary strategic objective is the destruction of the Ukrainian state and sovereignty and despite heavy losses and so-called peace talks, it has not abandoned that aim. At the end of 2021, Russia made another strategic objective unmistakably clear: the destruction of the entire Euro-Atlantic security architecture — that is, NATO.

If Europe wants to be an actor and a shaper of the evolving world order, we must ask ourselves every day whether we have done enough to help Ukraine and all of Europe win the war. And if we ask that question now, the answer is unfortunately no. We have not done enough to force Russia to abandon its objectives. We have not done enough to save Ukraine's people from violence on a genocidal scale. We have not done enough to restore the military capabilities of European states at a time when our enemy is not only planning to destroy us, but working toward that end every day.

It is shameful if our thinking is reduced to the cynical calculation that every day gained at the cost of Ukrainian soldiers' lives and the suffering of their people is a saving pause for Europe and the free world. With such an attitude, we move quickly toward the worst outcome. We must make a strategic turn, at the center of which must be Europe's — including Ukraine's — shared will to win.

Europe must build real and credible military capability grounded in the will to defend shared values against any enemy. Seeking dialogue with the aggressor is a dead end and works against achieving Europe's geopolitical goals.

Europe's Nordic countries — or, if you prefer, the New Nordic countries, including Estonia — must take the initiative and articulate, together with an action plan, a strategic objective of establishing Europe as a geopolitical center of influence. The path to that goal must include linking economic and security policy into a coherent whole, from capital markets to critical supply chains and from artificial intelligence and semiconductors to energy.

European states must assume long-term responsibility for defending the borders of a unified and free Europe, including Ukraine, even if the United States' strategic focus fluctuates or shifts more toward the Pacific region.

Estonia's interest is clear. We need a strong European Union capable, together with NATO, of deterring any threat, supporting Ukraine in repelling Russia until a victorious peace is achieved and defending the rights of the democratic world.

Ukraine is not only about Ukraine. Ukraine is a test. A test of whether aggression pays. A test of whether borders in Europe can be changed by force. A test of whether a small state has the right to exist even when a large neighbor refuses to recognize it.

Estonia's answer to that test has been clear and unequivocal from the beginning. We support Ukraine until victory restores a just and lasting peace in Europe. We do so not because it is easy. Not because it is cheap. But because the alternative would be far more costly for us.

If Russia is not interested in peace, as demonstrated by a year of so-called peace talks, nor in respecting Ukraine's sovereignty, it will not stop at Ukraine. All our allies understand this.

Therefore, Estonia must continue its own efforts and encourage its allies to increase military assistance to Ukraine, tighten sanctions against Russia and its supporters, isolate Russia in its war of conquest on the international stage and maintain a clear message that aggression and war crimes will not be normalized.

Estonia's foreign policy rests on unity, clarity of purpose, consistency and credibility. Our voice matters when it aligns with our actions. That is why cross-party consensus on the fundamental directions of foreign policy is a strategic asset for Estonia.

This does not mean we cannot have disagreements. It means that on existential questions, we stand together. And the existential question is simple: will Estonia remain a free, independent and democratic state?

The answer is clear: yes. But only if we do not surrender our compass in a world of upheaval. That compass is values-based realism. The desire to live in a world where sovereignty is not currency for exchange. Where freedom is not a privilege. Where might does not make right. That is Estonia's strategy for survival.

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