Years ago, journalist Priit Pullerits interviewed Tallinn University lecturer Linnar Priimägi. Inside Priimägi's office was a very low sofa, practically at floor level. Seated there, Pullerits remarked that he felt "lower than the grass." "But what do you think you are?" was Priimägi's answer.

I imagine that many European leaders felt "lower than the grass" last year too, when they listened to U.S. Vice President JD Vance's speech at the Munich Security Conference. In it, he took Europe to task in an extremely undiplomatic manner, subjecting it to ridicule. For this reason, Europe's political elite awaited with bated breath to hear what U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio would say a year later in the very same place, and to a large extent before the same audience.

Before becoming the vice president, Vance was largely an unknown figure to us Europeans. Rubio was and remains more familiar and more of a "one of us" figure to many Europeans. Vance has been quite openly hostile towards Europeans, as has U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who in a conversation via the messaging app Signal that leaked to the media called Europeans "pathetic." Rubio is regarded in Europe as a balanced and reasonable person, and the assumption is he will treat us better.

So the mere fact that the U.S. was represented in Munich this time by Rubio rather than by someone from the more hot-headed end of the administration was seen by some as a conciliatory signal.

In form, Rubio's appearance was very different from Vance's performance the previous year, though not so much in substance. The secretary of state's speech was built around stressing the long-standing partnership and shared values of Europe and the U.S. If one sets aside these window dressings, however, the message was that the U.S. has not reassessed its priorities or policies over the past year. Yet in diplomacy, both content and form matter. Rubio's remarks were nevertheless assessed somewhat positively, as part of a perceived change in tone in the U.S. administration's attitude toward Europe and Europeans.

Let us recall that only a few weeks ago Donald Trump himself was in Europe, in Davos, Switzerland, at the height of the crisis sparked by the Greenland issue.
There were those who thought Trump would use the Davos stage to further escalate tensions and to respond to those Europeans who had criticized him.

Instead, tensions over Greenland were turned down in Davos, with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's swift and effective diplomacy playing a key role here. A more conciliatory tone was adopted towards the allies. The Greenland issue has not disappeared from the agenda, but the issues are now being discussed in closed talks.

The same pattern was repeated after a mini-crisis erupted in transatlantic relations due to President Trump's remarks that allies had not stood shoulder to shoulder with the U.S. in Afghanistan but had shied away from the front line. Understandably, countries that suffered significant losses alongside the U.S. in Afghanistan reacted with indignation, including Estonia, as well as the U.K.
Although Trump did not apologize publicly to the allies, he nevertheless backed down. For example, a statement acknowledging the role of British forces was issued after the U.S. president had spoken on the matter with Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

There have been several similar signals too. Time will tell whether these are mere coincidences or whether there is truly a hint of a spring thaw in transatlantic relations. The U.S. would have more than one reason to think seriously about how and in what manner to improve relations with Europeans.

First, it is clear that Europe cannot simply be pressured in trade relations. Europe is an adept adapter and fully ready to seek alternatives and new opportunities to deepen trade ties with other countries and regions of the world, including Latin America and Asia. U.S. circles with business interests in Europe would certainly not be pleased if they found themselves waiting in a much longer line than they have been accustomed to.

Second, it is evident that European countries are unequivocally looking for ways to ensure that investments made on the back of rising defense spending remain in Europe as much as possible and help build up the continent's defense industry.

True, caution is needed with this policy. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde also warned in Munich that Europe cannot go too far in favoring its own production in ways that would harm our defense industry and defense capability. Nevertheless, the trend exists and has made defense industry companies with significant political influence in the U.S. very concerned.

The third reason is the domestic dynamic in the U.S. We can see that Congress, which had been relatively placid during the first year of Trump's second term, has begun to reassert itself, exemplified by a delegation of lawmakers representing both chambers of Congress and both major parties visiting the Kingdom of Denmark during the Greenland crisis.

Of course, one should not be too naïve and assume that further spiky situations in Europe–U.S. relations will not arise over the next three years. They likely will. But when storms blow roofs off houses, it is always good to know that the foundation and walls remain firmly in place — and they appear to be so, in transatlantic relations, as confirmed both by public messages from U.S. representatives and by what is said behind closed doors.

For Europe, a mini spring thaw is hopefully providing at least a brief breathing space and an opportunity to think strategically about how we ended up in a situation where we constantly worry and debate what is thought or believed about us on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean and whether Trump would in fact come to our defense.

Let us return to the start of the story. If you find yourself sitting in a place where you feel lower than the grass, you do not have to stay there. You can always stand up and get a proper chair. Fortunately, that is exactly what Europe is doing. Or at least would like to do — even as it does not yet know precisely how to.

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