The Estonian Human Development Report recently presented in the Riigikogu is titled "Education in the Mirror of Society," offering a solid overview of how various experts assess the state of our education system.

Focusing attention on education is entirely understandable. Education also has a clear impact on the two other components of the Human Development Index — national income per capita and average life expectancy — and in pro-education Estonia, we all hold that good education is the guarantor of prosperity and health.

For that reason, the report's main conclusion — that Estonia's education system is not in good shape and is being eroded by deepening inequality and a growing education gap — is troubling to everyone. A few pages later, the report states that Estonia's "greatest shortcoming in education is data disorder." Subsequent media coverage has begun to amplify the report's other concerns as well.

Is Estonia's greatest concern really that the results of the basic school mathematics exam depend on mothers' income? Or is it something related to data? Or the noise level during recess?

If we look at education from a slightly different angle — through the broader lens of societal progress — a somewhat different perspective emerges. From the standpoint of human development, Estonia is actually doing well in education; by that measure we rank seventh in the world, while life expectancy places us 45th and income 44th. Compared with other countries, we have steadily increased the number of years spent in school, yet in the rankings for health and income we are largely treading water.

Nearly all international comparisons recognize our educational achievements and even in university research we stand out globally. Yet the ever-faster spinning wheel of our education system somehow fails to reach the economy and society. Estonia's achievements in education are not "reflected in societal progress." It feels as though the chain has come off the bicycle and education has become disconnected from real life. Education seems to be operating for the purpose of reproducing itself.

The articles in the Human Development Report offer a number of confirmations of this metaphor. It becomes understandable why elsewhere in the world each additional year of schooling increases wages by 8 to 10 percent, while in Estonia the increase is only 6 percent. Our education spending is among the highest in the world, yet in vocational and professional higher education geared toward the labor market, the shortage of funds is deepening. On a tree of education directed toward self-development, the lower branches naturally wither because attention is fixed on lofty educational goals. It is noteworthy that the greatest problem identified in vocational education is that only 7 percent of graduates continue on to higher education.

The high dropout rate from (academic) education also becomes understandable. Young people with a practical mindset justifiably ask what education is for if it does not yield greater returns. It is likewise understandable why boys' lower (formal) level of education nevertheless results in higher pay; the school of life and work is simply much better aligned with the labor market.

Thus we end up with an education pyramid striving ever upward, held in place by an ever-expanding period of compulsory schooling, a societal faith in education and a sense of duty. Up to the age of 37, when the average doctoral candidate completes a degree. We also understand why doctoral degrees are primarily earned in fields where labor market demand is generally modest.

The report also addresses the loss of joy in school. If we start from the understanding that joy in school is an expression of joy in life, it is clear that the less connection there is between school and its goals and life outside school, the less joy there will be in school.

Just as a cyclist first tries to compensate for a loss of drive by shifting gears and pedaling faster, so too have we sought to treat our educational concerns with internal reforms. At an ever-accelerating pace. It is increasingly apparent that we are reaching the limits of endurance and more and more people in education would prefer to get off the bike, assess the situation and fix the chain. Perhaps that is the subtraction the report is recommending.

Of course, repairing a bicycle is much easier than restoring the driving force in education. Before undertaking that subtraction, we should determine why our education system has grown apart from society. Only then can we begin rebuilding those connections.

A few thoughts in that direction as well.

From the report I read that "the aim of education is to develop the individual, shape law-abiding citizens and create the prerequisites for lifelong learning" (Human Development Report 2026, p. 21). That may well be appropriate, yet the omission of society's needs and expectations is noteworthy. This line of thinking is also reflected somewhat later when the report contrasts the neoliberal and humanistic education paradigms (Human Development Report 2026, p. 54), treating one as an "old" and the other as a "new" approach. I believe it would be more constructive to see these approaches as complementary: education should be able to respond both to shared societal interests and to needs of self-fulfillment. Focusing solely on personal or educational outcomes is what knocks the chain off the wheel.

A second observation concerns the inputs of education. The modern understanding of educational outcomes consists of three equal input components which, multiplied together, produce the final result: genes, school and the broader environment.

In our education policy — and in places in the report as well — one still encounters the notion that every student could or at least should receive the same portion of education from school, independent of anything else, because otherwise there is an education gap. But if we understand school as an empowering institution, it becomes clear that outcomes necessarily differ depending on inputs and thus a high school graduate may often be in a weaker position on the labor market than a graduate of a vocational institution suited to his or her abilities. All of this presupposes a beautiful, broad-canopied oak tree of education, not a sequoia shooting into the sky.

And finally: we cannot discuss education's impact on society without touching on the economics of education, which would explain what we receive in return for our investment in education. I did not find that in the report. And so what typically happens in Estonia happens again: there is always a shortage of money in education, because for those involved, education is an intrinsic value embodied at the top of the education tree, while the rest of society feels that it has not received a proper product even for that money. And no one knows who is right.

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