Overestimated inflation rate will impact Estonia's economy for years to come

During the 2021–2022 energy crisis and the broader period of uncertainty, Statistics Estonia overestimated the consumer price index (CPI) and this will affect the economy in real terms, the agency's Director General Urmet Lee said on Monday.
Speaking at a press conference, Lee said the agency has better access to data now than it did five years ago.
"In 2021–2022, we overestimated the CPI," he admitted. "At the peak of the energy crisis, in month-to-month comparison, the CPI would in one case have been 24.8 percent, whereas now, in light of better data, it is 22.2 percent," Lee said, adding that the average annual growth of the CPI is nevertheless more important.
The official rate of price growth for 2022 was 19.4 percent, but under the revised figures, it has been calculated at 17.6 percent. This is a difference of 1.8 percentage points.
The overestimation impacted the interpretation of the economic situation at the time, but also long-term macroeconomic analyses, Lee said. For example, in comparisons of real purchasing power, real growth and the price level.
"The impact of overestimating the price level during the crisis years will remain in the economy in real terms. These are all indexed contracts and prices that have already been taken into account in the economy, based on that 24.8 percent," the head of Statistics Estonia said.
"Analytically, we can correct history more precisely; we will provide economic experts with more accurate energy price figures for that period, and through that it will be possible to make adjustments to other macroeconomic indicators."
Lee said the agency plans to make more updates to its methodology.
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Editor: Karin Koppel, Helen Wright










