The release of January's consumer price index (CPI) data has been postponed twice and on Thursday morning Statistics Estonia said it does not know when the figures will be ready for publication.

Urmet Lee, director general of Statistics Estonia, said Monday that the delay is not solely due to the introduction of a new methodology. The agency is also overhauling and automating the entire CPI production process.

The consumer price index, which measures changes in the prices of goods and services, is used to adjust pensions, wages and the subsistence minimum. It is also applied in part to long-term rental contracts.

Keldo (Reform) first stressed that the government has not pressured the agency to change its calculation methodology.

"It is very important to note that the government has not pressured and must not pressure it. Statistics Estonia must remain independent. The government and the responsible minister have certainly not exerted any pressure," Keldo said.

"Why did the agency undertake this change in the first place? There had long been discussion that the consumer price index, which affects our economy, consumer behavior and confidence, was not entirely in line with what was happening in real life. There was the example of electricity prices, where the market exchange price is one thing, but the universal service price was used. Any change takes time to get used to, but I emphasize, both as a citizen and as minister of economic affairs, that I hope the agency can put its models and work processes in order as quickly as possible," Keldo said.

"We are all waiting for the consumer price index, but even more important is that the content is accurate. That is because the CPI is not just a single number. It affects the course of the economy and consumers' perception of the overall cost of living. /.../ I understand the public pressure over why it is needed," Keldo added.

The Bank of Estonia and economic experts have discussed whether the CPI has been in line with reality in recent years, he said. Economic growth figures — both structural growth and real growth — also depend on it. "The impact is that much greater. It is better to take a few extra days or a week. But the figure and the methodology must be as close to real life and as accurate as possible," he stressed.

Keldo said he believes Statistics Estonia will publish the CPI before pensions are indexed on April 1 and that the delay will not affect the indexation.

Infrastructure Minister Kuldar Leis (Reform) added that in the future, such situations could be avoided by setting more realistic deadlines for completing major changes.

"Perhaps we have been a bit too naive about various reforms. We try to do things very quickly and promise they will be ready by a certain time, but in reality our assessment of how long change would take has been too optimistic," Leis said.

Reinsalu: Ensuring independence of Statistics Estonia must be a priority

Opposition Isamaa party leader Urmas Reinsalu, however, expressed deeper concern about the independence of Statistics Estonia. He said the absence of the consumer price index is a serious problem that raises a number of questions.

"When we place this situation in a broader context, the European statistics regulation, which sets out the principles for collecting European statistics and with which Estonia's national statistics must comply, requires independence in data collection, including from political or administrative influence. At the same time, last year, particularly in the context of the impact of tax increases on rising prices, I watched closely as the prime minister and the finance minister resolutely criticized skewed and incorrect statistics in Estonia regarding price increases. Now a new statistical method for identifying price increases has been implemented," Reinsalu said.

"I read the finance minister's comments on ERR on Monday with concern. First, he repeated that previously skewed statistics on price increases had been collected, which in his assessment overestimated inflation. Second, that Estonia has changed this statistical method and that he was involved in it, which I find unclear, what exactly that means, his involvement in changing the statistical methodology. Third, the finance minister expressed the view that Estonia is a pioneer in this field in Europe, which raises the question of where these differences stem from. Fourth, the finance minister noted that Statistics Estonia is chasing down minor errors, which certainly raises questions if the minister is so well informed — namely, what those minor errors actually consist of," Reinsalu said.

"In a broader sense, independent statistics are extremely important in our society for credible, evidence-based policymaking and they must also remain comparable over the long term so that methodological changes do not shift the basis for comparison," the politician noted.

"I believe it is important to safeguard the independence of Statistics Estonia and this current prolonged postponement under a new methodology raises a number of question marks — both about what exactly is behind the delay and about the details of the changes that have been implemented," he added.

"And we must certainly take into account that inflation serves as the basis for several strictly objective expectations, including, for example, the state pension rate and how it is calculated," Reinsalu said.

"I do not mean that we will not have official statistics on price increases by April, but rather that such a statistical change is likely to affect the actual inflation figure, which in turn changes pension calculations in purely nominal monetary terms," he clarified.

"The key issue is that for society it is important to understand in detail — and for the agency to explain — which elements in the statistical calculation were changed and how this affects comparability across time series," Reinsalu concluded.

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