While another round of peace talks was being held between Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi, Europe was debating whether to appoint a special envoy to these talks. There are public disagreements among and within European countries over whether such an envoy is needed at all, and whether the timing is right. What is missing from the European discussion is a realistic understanding of what the special representative could or should achieve.

First, it is not clear if proponents of the idea, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, are more interested in a seat at the negotiating table next to Ukraine, Russia, and the US or in resuming high-level dialogue between Europe and Russia. Second, it is not clear if the special representative is expected to push Russia towards a sustainable peace or to push Ukraine to make unsustainable concessions. Third, Europe is having a public discussion on a special envoy in a situation where neither Russia nor the US are keen to have Europeans at the table. This raises the question of whether the initiative—and by extension, Europe as a geopolitical actor—can be taken seriously.

The Whys

Claiming a seat for Europe in the peace talks is an understandable position in principle, especially now that Ukrainians and Russians are finally negotiating directly (with US participation). However, at this point, Russia is not genuinely interested in peace but keeps repeating its demands that are unacceptable to Ukraine, notably gaining control over the whole territory of Donbas. Therefore, Russia is also opposed to involving Europeans, who (so far at least) are backing Ukraine on the issue of territories. Ukraine is ready for a major concession anyway, as it is willing to accept a ceasefire agreement along the current frontline, which would mean continued Russian occupation of part of its territory for an indeterminate period of time. It is clear that no Ukrainian leader could agree to giving up further territory which Russia has not been able to conquer militarily.

Both the Russians and Americans might become more open to European participation if Europe were to pressure Ukraine to make further concessions. While such an agenda has some support in Europe, it is certainly not the dominant view. Rather, Europeans have been rightly worried that an unsustainable agreement might emerge from the talks if they are not represented. It is not in Europe's interest to join the talks in order to become a party to a bad deal that would increase the likelihood of a new invasion of Ukraine or even a broader war on the continent.

The Whos

The names that have been mentioned in the media as possible candidates for the job—Sauli Niinistö, Angela Merkel, and Mario Draghi—are all former heads of state and would thus not be of the right level for the negotiations at this point. They appear to be more suited for the purpose of relaunching high-level bilateral dialogue between Russia and Europe, considering the extensive experience of Niinistö and Merkel in particular when talking to Putin. The launch of such dialogue at this moment would certainly be seen as a sign of weakness by the Russian side and would encourage the Kremlin to stick to its maximalist demands. Europeans should have learned from the pre-2022 developments that talking to the Russians is no magic solution to ensure peace; on the contrary, talk that is not backed by credible hard power is counterproductive vis-à-vis an aggressive, revisionist power such as Russia.

The idea of a special representative raises the question of whether Europe has an adequate understanding of the ways in which it can push Russia towards a sustainable peace and avoid reinforcing its demands for Ukraine's capitulation. Russia is not yet under sufficient pressure to make it interested in ending the war. Europe should focus on increasing the pressure, as it is, in fact, doing through the latest 20th package of EU sanctions approved in early February and targeting the Russian shadow fleet, banks, and trade. It is also essential for Europe, together with Ukraine, to continue building up stronger military capability in order to stop Russia's advances (however minor) on the ground and convince the Kremlin that continued fighting will not lead to a better outcome of the war for the Russian side.

In light of all the confusion and disagreements around the issue, the European discussion on a special representative for Russia/Ukraine peace talks shows that the continent has yet to become a serious strategic actor.

This article was first published by the ICDS.

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