The presidential election coming this fall is likely to be the most consequential political event in Estonia this year. It's a complete unknown — nobody knows how it will play out this time. The result could be greater clarity: we might better understand which parties align with whom and what values they stand for. But it could just as easily descend into total chaos, as it did in 2016, marked by offense, disappointment and entirely unpredictable developments.

What makes this upcoming presidential election unique is that it takes place just six months before the Riigikogu elections. That gives parties a stronger-than-usual incentive to show the public that they "made the president" and are now the presidential party. This makes the scenario of chaos and political brinkmanship far more likely than swift inter-party agreements and a quick vote in the Riigikogu.

Recent Estonian history tells us that once the election moves to the Electoral College, things start to happen. Presidential elections have led to governments collapsing, entire parties disappearing and previously unthinkable coalition lines being crossed.

Let's review all three times this century that the elections reached the Electoral College. In 2001, when Arnold Rüütel was surprisingly elected president, it led a few months later to the Reform Party breaking the so-called "white forces" pact against Edgar Savisaar. Reform began cooperating with the Center Party in both Tallinn and Toompea, effectively ending Mart Laar's second government.

In 2006, when Arnold Rüütel faced off against Toomas Hendrik Ilves, the so-called white forces didn't let the People's Union, which supported Rüütel, go unpunished. A few months after the election, the land swap scandal erupted, along with other corruption cases, which essentially destroyed the People's Union.

In 2016, the presidential election triggered a full-blown political earthquake. The betrayal by the Savisaar faction of the Center Party toward their own candidate, Mailis Reps, led to a new party congress where Savisaar was ousted and Jüri Ratas became chair. From there, it took just one day for the Reform Party, which had ruled Estonia for 17 straight years, to lose power for five, as Taavi Rõivas's government was replaced by one led by Ratas.

In short, when the process moves to the Electoral College, all kinds of political tremors follow. So why would we think this time will be any different?

Yes, it's possible that the liberal bloc — Reform, Eesti 200 and the Social Democrats — manages to pull together the votes to elect a president in the Riigikogu. An attempt in that direction will certainly be made, but I'm not overly optimistic about the outcome.

Given that the Social Democrats hold the balance of power, we know that their relationship with Kristen Michal's Reform Party hasn't exactly been warm lately. Why should Reform support a presidential candidate most pleasing to the Social Democrats while fading into the background themselves? That's not really their style. And the reverse is just as valid: why should the Social Democrats make major concessions to the Reform Party who has betrayed them more than once?

On top of that, Reform hasn't exactly demonstrated stellar diplomatic skill in recent years.

So instead of eagerly waiting to see which candidate the liberal parties propose, we should also be ready for headlines like: "Lauri Läänemets and Michal clash — again."

If the election moves to the Electoral College, unpredictable developments become highly likely. What exactly might happen is, of course, impossible to foresee right now. But it's not out of the question that we'll see unexpected splits and clashes within the conservative or liberal blocs. We might also see surprising alliances and deals struck across those blocs, breaking existing lines of division.

Whatever happens, it will have a strong aftershock effect on the 2027 Riigikogu elections. It could significantly strengthen or weaken the position of either the conservative or liberal bloc or even blow up the emerging logic of the blocs altogether.

Anything is possible. Possible because, once again, it's highly likely that our political elite won't be able to resist the worst instincts of their political gamesmanship — the urge to say, "Look, we gave Estonia a president."

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