Next year, Estonia will be acting as chair of the Nordic-Baltic cooperation, known as the NB8 group. It will come at a time when the turbulent security environment has pushed countries in the region to cooperate more closely than ever.

Dark trends in European security and the global order require small states in the region to adapt, strike a new balance between realism and idealism, and join forces to defend their interests and values.

As small states and liberal democracies, the NB8 countries have underlined the importance of international law and democratic values in their foreign policy. Now that the liberal rules-based order is eroding and democracy is under pressure even in the U.S. — the country that used to be the leader of the free world — security concerns of the NB8 countries necessitate a shift towards a more realist approach.

Bridging Realism and Idealism

Finland has redefined its foreign policy as based on "value-based realism", while Denmark is using an equally contradictory notion of "pragmatic idealism." Both labels aim to reconcile the idealism of value-based foreign policy with the need to adapt to a world where great power competition overrides international law and value considerations.

Russia's war against Ukraine and ambition to remake the European security order have given a major push to the NB8 security cooperation, facilitated by NATO accession of Finland and Sweden. The NB8 countries have become leading supporters of Ukraine's war effort, which for some has meant a significant shift from their traditional security policy focus on peacekeeping and mediation to firmly taking the side of Ukraine in its fight against Russia. Ukraine fits so well as a common focus of the NB8 because it is where the idealist aspiration to defend our values and the realist need to survive come together.

Norway, for example, has framed this choice as one between peace and freedom, and has chosen to defend freedom by giving military assistance to Ukraine. For the Baltic states, the choice is even more obvious: they know all too well that a bad peace that comes at the cost of freedom can mean decades of oppression and violence. The traditional emphasis of Nordic countries on dialogue with Moscow as a means to manage the relationship has given way to efforts to push back against Russia's aggressive behaviour. This refocusing and disillusionment is vividly described by Jens Stoltenberg, former prime minister of Norway, in his recently released book that looks back at his term as NATO Secretary General.

Cynicism in Transatlantic Relations

The new level of uncertainty in the transatlantic relationship, ushered in by Donald Trump's second presidency, has further increased the urgency of regional efforts to strengthen security and defense. One of the first shocks of President Trump's second term, shattering the Nordic countries, in particular, was his expressed interest in gaining control over Greenland. This is a stark example of the changed nature of U.S. foreign policy that now seems to disregard the core norms of sovereignty and territorial integrity, even vis à vis close allies.

Yet while trust in the U.S. has waned, Russia continues to pose a long-term threat, and the need to keep the U.S. engaged in Europe in order to deter Russia is painfully obvious to countries in the Baltic Sea region. The shared values and principles, which used to glue the alliance, are eroding and making way for a cynical realist need to maintain the relationship through a so-called transactional approach. Finland has mastered this adaptation particularly skilfully through President Alexander Stubb's golf diplomacy. Close access of one of the NB leaders to President Trump is undoubtedly in the interest of the whole region, as it helps to bring shared security concerns to Washington's attention. A rapid increase in military spending is also helping the NB8 countries manage the transatlantic relationship while preparing them for a likely future — a scenario in which the U.S. reduces its contribution to their defense.

For Estonia, the NB8 offers a platform for pragmatic regional cooperation and a tool for magnifying the country's influence and visibility in international fora. Further enhanced security cooperation is essential, for example, for curbing the Russian shadow fleet or developing drone defense capability. By taking a common stance in the EU, NATO, and other organisations, the NB8 have a better chance of influencing their decision-making. It is obvious to all NB8 countries that their regional cooperation is complementary to NATO and the EU and aimed at strengthening these organisations, not fragmenting them. There is a tension, though, between the rise of minilateral cooperation (in formats such as the NB8, the Weimar Group, or the "Coalition of the Willing" for Ukraine) on the one hand and the wish to maintain the unity and cohesion of the EU and NATO on the other.

A Nordic-Baltic Identity in the Making

Alongside pragmatic cooperation, the NB8 also involves a deeper layer of regional identity-building. The Baltic Sea has connected people living on its shores for centuries, while also being a theater for power struggles: from competition between the German-led Hanseatic League and the Kalmar Union of Scandinavians during the Middle Ages to the Cold War contest between the Soviets and Americans.

After WWII, Nordic cooperation became an important avenue for tying the Nordic countries together and fostering common values in spite of their different security policy solutions and ways to manage Cold War tensions. The Nordic brand remains strong and important for the region — but also exclusive, as Estonia has experienced when seeking to identify itself as another Nordic country of "Jul" (meaning Christmas in Nordic and Estonian languages), snow, and sauna. The advantages of further elevating the NB8 as an internationally recognisable grouping with a positive image are perhaps more obvious to the Baltic states than to the Nordics. Like the strengthening of Nordic cooperation after World War II, the current rise of the NB8 builds on deep historical and cultural ties as well as acute security interests of the countries involved. By acting together, the NB8 countries stand a better chance of maintaining their freedom and sovereignty at a time when these are being seriously tested.

This article was first published on the ICDS website.

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