Last week, a draft U.S. plan was leaked to the media, which calls on Ukraine to cede territory, reduce the size of its armed forces and rules out NATO membership. Instead, Ukraine will get U.S. security guarantees.

The 28-point plan is suspected to have been authored by the U.S. but with significant input from Moscow. On Sunday, the UK, France and Germany put forward their own proposal.

Speaking Monday morning on "Vikerhommik," Marko Mihkelson (Reform) said the whole weekend had been filled with intense international diplomatic activity, including by Estonia, to help Ukraine in an extremely difficult situation.

"Essentially, they are being forced to surrender in a war that has, in reality, been going on for more than 11 years now. We have all read the 28 points, and I really cannot call that a peace plan. It is a straightforward act of capitulation, likely written by Russia and sent toward Ukraine through the Americans — or more precisely, leaked to the media by the Russians themselves, which caused this major confusion," he told the show.

Mihkelson added that the positive news for now is that Ukraine has not surrendered.

"There was a fear that during the day yesterday, Ukraine would be pushed into a situation where it would have no choice but to agree to terms that, given the current state of affairs, would be extremely, extremely harmful to Ukraine. But it is clear that international pressure, including on the Americans, has at least created a situation where we have moved away from the horror contained in those 28 points," the politician continued.

Still, Mihkelson believes, the situation is not yet good enough to say that Ukraine, or Estonia for that matter, has no reason to worry.

"This week, starting today, could turn out to be one of the most critical of the entire Ukraine war and Russia's aggression. A great deal depends on what European allies and partners do or do not do to avoid a situation where Russia could declare victory and, tragically, Ukraine defeat," he said.

Mihkelson pointed out that the negotiations are not taking place between Ukraine and Russia.

"The most disturbing thing about this situation is that instead of pressuring the aggressor, immense pressure — especially from the Americans — has been placed on Ukraine, the victim of the war. They have essentially been asked to surrender. But as [President] Volodymyr Zelenskyy knows very well, and so does the entire Ukrainian people, no political leader in Ukraine can afford to sign any document that voluntarily gives up the country's sovereignty and territory."

The chairman said this principle is what is currently keeping Ukraine afloat.

"And if these points are now changed in such a way that Ukraine's sovereignty is guaranteed, I do not currently see any conditions under which Russia would agree to that. Russia believes that all of Ukraine will come under Russian control within the next two years. They believe they can fracture Europe's entire security architecture to such a degree that they will be able to declare the achievement of their main goals."

The MP said that developments on the front lines are currently reinforcing Russia's belief that victory is within reach and that Ukraine will not be able to hold out in the long run. Additionally, it thinks the West is not united in its support for Ukraine.

"The United States has, in effect, not provided a single new aid package this year. Trump has already said that he could provide aid to Ukraine, but only if the Europeans buy the weapons from him, and then they can give them to Ukraine," he said.

According to Mihkelson, Russia has not stated anywhere that it intends to change its two main strategic objectives.

"First, the destruction of Ukraine's sovereignty. And second, essentially, the destruction of NATO. From those 28 surrender points, we can see in several of them how Russia wants to gain full veto power over NATO decisions—specifically over NATO enlargement—and that is clearly something NATO member states cannot accept," Mihkelson stressed.

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