Expert: Ukraine will not collapse even if US ends aid, intel sharing
Ukraine will hold out even if the United States ended all assistance, said International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) researcher Marek Kohv, told "Aktuaalne kaamera."
Would Ukraine in any way be able to agree to the U.S. peace plan as we have seen it, one which includes ceding territory and downsizing its armed forces?
Certainly not. The draft agreement we have seen is highly appalling. It benefits Putin, it likely benefits those close to Trump, and it significantly weakens Ukraine, plus opens the door to the next act of aggression.
We have seen a part of the draft agreement. U.S. President Donald Trump has said this is not his final offer. But are we being too optimistic in thinking that the real agreement will end up being something entirely different?
That can only be answered by those who have seen the agreement or who will be drafting it. I cannot agree with those European politicians who have said that it is a very good and constructive basis, as it is a massively dreadful [agreement]. In addition to inflicting terrible harm on Ukraine, it also decides things on behalf of NATO and the EU, which significantly affects our region as well.
What would it mean for Ukraine if the U.S. were to no longer support it?
That would certainly prove very hard for Ukraine, but they would likely choose their dignity, as in the end, there is no other recipe. A loss of U.S. support would create problems above all in intelligence information, plus in certain weapons systems.
How strong is Europe's capacity and willingness to help Ukraine if the U.S. does bow out? Could European intelligence compensate for the loss of U.S. intelligence?
The problem here is that Europe does not have intelligence capabilities like these. The U.S. has 265 military satellites alone. Europe can counter that with 44.
The scale and speed at which intelligence can be obtained and delivered to Ukraine are enormously different. Additionally, the Americans have very strong signals intelligence, which together form targeting packages that allow Russian targets to be hit quickly. But Europe simply does not have that capability, in this form.
How great would Europe's financial aid be – could Ukraine manage its wages, heating, and energy?
Even if the U.S. stopped all assistance that Europe today buys from the U.S., purely, and stopped intelligence sharing, Ukraine would not collapse. Europe can help that far on its own. What Europe must do quickly is, first, to invest in its own intelligence capabilities and, second, to invest and provide significantly more funding to Ukraine's defense industry. Estimates suggest that roughly half of Ukraine's defense industry is currently standing idle.
Background
The 28-point draft agreement leaked this week proposes that Ukraine cede territory to Russia, including areas not currently under Russian control; impose restrictions on the size of its military, and forgo NATO membership, in return for security guarantees from the U.S.
Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform) has stated that Europe's security is non-negotiable, after talks with Ukraine's President Zelenskyy and the Nordic and Baltic Eight (NB8) leaders. Trump has given Zelenskyy until Thursday, November 27, to accept the deal.
--
Editor: Andrew Whyte, Marko Tooming
Source: 'Aktuaalne kaamera'
