Rail Baltica phase one will cost at least €24 billion, EU auditors say
The high-speed, European-gauge Rail Baltica project will cost close to €24 billion, according to a newly released European Court of Auditors (ECA) special report.
Rail Baltica will run from Tallinn southward to the Lithuanian-Polish border. Its original estimated cost had been under €6 billion.
Dubbed "EU multibillion transport megaprojects: Mind the gaps," the audit report released Monday covers several major infrastructure investments, including Rail Baltica, and involves 13 EU member states.
ECA member Annemie Turtelboom, who led the preparation of the report, said at a press conference the first phase of Rail Baltica, meaning one pair of tracks, could be completed by 2030 despite issues. Turtelboom refrained from assessing the actions of the states in managing the project, saying that the reasons for its delays were not the purpose of their audit.
The original cost estimate for building Rail Baltica, one part of the core network of the trans-European transport network (TEN-T), was €5.8 billion (at 2017 prices) at the time the relevant special report was drawn up in 2020. A risk-adjusted total cost was set at €7 billion.
The new ECA report, using data available in 2025, found the cost of constructing the first stage of Rail Baltica to be €15.3 billion, with the cost of completing the entire project estimated at €23.8 billion.
A summary of the report notes many megaprojects have been dogged by cost increases, adding in the case of Rail Baltica, "costs have ballooned: +160 percent in the last six years to almost four times higher than initial estimates."
The report notes that the project developer warned that the new cost forecast may still be inaccurate, as completed design studies cover only about one-third of the route.
Project partners have split the mega-infrastructure into two stages: a first phase consisting of a single railway line costing €15.3 billion and due by 2030, and a broader second phase with no fixed deadline. Because of the extended timeline, total costs are likely to exceed €23.8 billion once the second stage is completed.
The special report also revealed that a large part of TEN-T projects have become more expensive and most of them have also been delayed far beyond what was planned, meaning that the core network will not be completed by 2030.
More information on the ECA special audit report is here.
Rail Baltica is planned to have a military as well as civilian capacity.
A Riigikogu special anti-corruption committee on Monday addressed planned cutbacks in Latvia's portion of the Rail Baltica project, which could leave the 60-kilometer section between Riga and Estonia on the old 1,520 mm gauge. The standard gauge in the EU is 1,435 mm.
The committee addressed the issue of a €4.4 billion funding gap in the Latvian stretch of Rail Baltica, with a technical bottleneck affecting Riga and Salaspils, in the latter case, the "billion-euro hurdle" of the Salaspils-Daugava bridge, which will span the Daugava River just east of Riga.
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Editor: Mait Ots, Andrew Whyte
