Starting Monday, voters can cast their ballots for their preferred candidates in the local government elections. Naturally, this is a time when politics is discussed more than usual and I too have had to answer numerous election-related questions, both in private conversations and, of course, in the media. That's why I decided to write a commentary on the questions I'm asked most often.

1. Who will win the election?

This is probably the most popular question in private conversations. And I've been relieved to answer: "I don't know!" Thankfully, we live in a democratic country where election results are not predetermined and where the final say belongs to the voter — not to a political scientist or anyone else.

Of course, as election day approaches, we get more information that can help us make educated guesses — like public opinion polls or insights into how actively different parties are campaigning in various areas. But ultimately, it all comes down to which voters drop their ballots into the box and which stay away.

2. Is my vote wasted if the candidate or list I choose doesn't win?

In Estonia, even at the local level, there is an electoral threshold. Lists that receive less than 5 percent of the vote in a district generally don't get any seats.

It's true that if a small list features a star candidate who draws a lot of votes, that person can win a personal mandate. For example, in Narva, Pärnu or Saaremaa Municipality — where over 30 seats are up for grabs — a candidate only needs to collect just over 3 percent of all votes cast to get elected.

Tallinn, on the other hand, is divided into eight electoral districts and the bar for a personal mandate is considerably higher. The total number of votes cast must be divided by the number of mandates in that district. And when votes within a list are spread out among more candidates, the list as a whole must also surpass the 5-percent threshold across the entire city. So for smaller lists, gaining representation is quite difficult.

But what happens if my chosen candidate or party still doesn't get elected?

Estonia's electoral system works in a way that, although we vote directly for individual candidates, we are also indirectly voting for the list as a whole. If the list crosses the threshold but a specific candidate doesn't get enough votes, my vote still helps another, more popular candidate on the same list — or one ranked higher by the party — get elected.

And indirectly, my vote also carries weight for the candidate who didn't win. The number of votes they manage to attract this time can influence how influential they are within their party or where they're placed on the list in future elections — not to mention their personal motivation to stay in politics. So for a politician, every vote is political capital.

3. Is there any point in reading party platforms? They promise the moon and stars, but most of it never gets done.

It's true — even campaign communication experts like Lionel Zetter note that the main purpose of a party platform is to serve as a tool for party activists. It helps them get familiar with the full range of the party's policy offerings so they can present them to voters based on their interests. Other forms of campaign communication are intended to highlight which issues are most important to a specific candidate or list.

That said, party platforms do give us as voters a clearer picture of the values and priorities of the list as a whole. This can provide some peace of mind in situations where our vote may indirectly help another candidate from the same list get elected.

4. What issues actually fall under the authority of local governments and which promises are just empty talk?

Local governments primarily deal with urban planning, social welfare and education at the preschool and basic school levels. They also organize local cultural and sporting life, as well as provide municipal services like water and sewage, waste collection, public transportation and upkeep of public spaces.

We can't influence things like VAT on food, the elimination of the tax hump (Estonia's basic exemption reduction scheme –ed.) or the car tax through local elections. Nor can we overturn national policies, such as the transition to Estonian-language education. However, if the local government has the budgetary means, it can take on more activist roles — like offering support measures if a national reform negatively impacts local residents, trying to stimulate local business activity or even building a local high school.

Still, with any such promises, it's crucial to consider where the money would come from.

5. Will these elections lead to a Russian mutiny, as Postimees claimed last week?

The revocation of voting rights from third-country nationals could indeed mobilize certain voter groups, especially people in Estonia with so-called gray passports (stateless persons – ed.), who typically have low voter turnout. For many of them, this year's election is the last chance to participate, unless they manage to obtain Estonian citizenship in the meantime.

But a mutiny? The article likely aimed more at mobilizing Estonian-speaking voters.

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