Baltics developing plans for mass evacuation if Russia attacks
According to a report by Reuters, the Baltic states are developing plans for the mass evacuation of civilians in the event of an invasion by Russian troops.
Since the start of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine in February 2022, the three Baltic states have doubled their defense spending. The countries' governments have also repeatedly announced plans to build defensive structures on their borders with Russia and Belarus. In May this year, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia agreed to cooperate in the field of civil defense, Reuters reported on Friday.
Estonia is preparing plans to relocate a tenth of its population — around 140,000 people — to temporary shelters in the event of a Russian invasion, said Ivar Mai, mass evacuation adviser to the Estonian Rescue Board.
Among those who would be expected to move as part of those plans are around two thirds of the residents of Narva. "It's only for those who don't have other places to go," Mai told Reuters.
According to estimates by the Latvian authorities, in the event of a Russian invasion, a third of the country's population, or 630,000 people, would leave their homes. This figure was reported by Ivars Nakurts, deputy head of Latvia's State Fire and Rescue Service.
Similar plans are also being prepared in Lithuania. This week, evacuation drills were held in Vilnius, with around 100 people transported by municipal transport from four districts of the Lithuanian capital to prepared reception centers in other cities in the country – Kelme, Kedainiai, Kaunas, Siauliai, and Ukmerge.
Lithuanian officials interviewed by Reuters say the current contingency plan is being developed to account for a much larger number of its citizens.
According to Renatas Požela, head of Lithuania's firefighting service, in the event of a Russian attack, Lithuania plans to evacuate half its population living within 40 kilometers of the Russian and Belarusian borders, which is approximately 400,000 people. It is expected that in such a scenario, 300,000 people would be accommodated in the west of the country in Kaunas – in local schools, universities, churches and a sports arena.
Požela added that as part of Lithuania's emergency evacuation plan, assembly points for citizens have already been selected (including in Vilnius), trains and buses have been allocated, and warehouses have been stocked with essential items, including toilet paper and mattresses. A map has been prepared for motorists, marking secondary roads that are preferable in case there is the need for evacuation (the main highways will be reserved for the army), as well as cities where shelter can be found.
More than 1 million people could become displaced should Russia attack the Baltic countries and the plans being drawn up need to be enacted. The total population of the Baltic states is 6.2 million (Lithuania – 2.9 million, Latvia – 1.9 million, Estonia – 1.4 million).
None of the three Baltic countries has developed detailed plans for the resettlement of citizens outside their territories.
"It's a very reassuring message to our society that we are ready and we are planning," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys told Reuters. "We have done our homework."
---
Editor: Elina Kachan, Michael Cole
