This fall, the airwaves have once again been filled with news about how Russia has concentrated its missile and long-range drone capabilities on attacking Ukrainian cities, especially Kyiv. Targeting civilians is a deliberate strategy on Russia's part.

In the event of a potential war, it is crucial to have the reassurance that our people are protected and have somewhere to go when missiles start falling from the sky. In Estonia, such shelters are virtually nonexistent, creating a significant gap in our national defense. Even though the solution is entirely within our means and feasible, the issue requires greater public awareness and bold, out-of-the-box thinking.

Shelter needs to be reachable in two minutes

These were the kinds of issues discussed at the international civil protection conference held at the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences at the end of October. Pasi Raatikainen, a Finnish expert on civilian shelters, pointed out that because Russia needs access to the Baltic Sea for oil exports and to the Arctic Ocean for submarine-based nuclear deterrence, in the event of a war in Northern Europe, Estonia and Finland would be at the center of military operations.

Moreover, given our close proximity to Russia, Estonia would have extremely limited early warning time in the event of a missile strike. For example, in the Narva region, there is virtually no warning time at all, while hypersonic missiles could reach Tallinn or Helsinki in two to three minutes and Saaremaa in five. So what would be the smartest plan to protect our people against such a threat?

Reinforced cellars entirely sufficient and cheap to boot

In Estonia, people often look with admiration to Finland's extensive system of public shelters. However, as the Finnish expert himself pointed out, these were built decades ago to defend against a different kind of threat — bombings and gas attacks. Such a system isn't something Estonia should copy directly, because with such a short early warning time, people likely wouldn't make it to a large shared shelter, such as one serving an entire city block.

Israel has also been cited as a potential model, where nearly every apartment or floor has its own shelter. This is a far better solution in terms of short warning times, but it would be extremely expensive and could realistically only be implemented in newly constructed buildings. Yet we need shelters quickly, affordably and for everyone.

Recent expert analyses, including experiments conducted by the Finnish Defense Forces, show that in fact, reinforced ordinary basements offer sufficient protection against missile strikes. In places where basements don't exist, temporary above-ground shelters built from concrete blocks can provide adequate safety. A shelter does not necessarily have to be underground.

According to a recent expert estimate, creating shelter space for one million people in Estonia — by reinforcing basements and constructing temporary above-ground shelters — would cost between €600 and €650 million. The work could realistically be completed within two years.

The psychological importance of shelters cannot be underestimated. We are continuously purchasing new weapons so that in a few years we'll be capable of striking Russian weapons systems on Russian territory. At the same time, construction should be underway to ensure that the reservists who may be called to use those weapons can be confident that their loved ones have a safe place to go.

Since this is an investment in Estonia's defense and, more importantly, in the security of our people — it would likely be appropriate to finance it, at least in part, through borrowing. Such a state-funded initiative would also give a much-needed boost to the country's still sluggish economic recovery.

We're on the right path, but let's switch into overdrive

Naturally, both members of the Riigikogu and the government are aware of the importance of shelters. In September 2025, the Riigikogu passed an amendment to the Emergency Act, which stipulates that starting July 1 of next year, all new residential or public buildings with a floor area of at least 1,200 square meters must include a non-public shelter or adapt existing spaces for use as shelter areas.

Such regulations and developments are certainly necessary. Experts who recently visited Estonia and commented on our situation were in agreement that the civil protection system Estonia is developing must be multilayered and offer various options. However, this is a long-term measure, the impact of which may not be seen for another 10 to 20 years. Yet when it comes to, say, ammunition purchases, we are already talking about the need to be ready for a possible war within the next couple of years.

Therefore, it would be worth seriously considering an investment program that would, within two years, create adequate basic shelter space for one million people in Estonia. As Ukraine's experience unfortunately confirms, beyond the physical damage and injuries, the even greater toll on society is inflicted by mental strain, fear and stress.

A secure shelter just a minute away — most often in one's own basement — would go a long way toward mitigating the harm caused by this invisible but no less dangerous enemy.

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