At the same time, the US could have provided the tried-and-tested BGM-109 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAM) to Ukraine much earlier in the war, she went on.

Kalm, deputy director of think tank the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), also noted the possibility of sending Tomahawks to Kyiv, adding that he may impose fewer restrictions on their use than Joe Biden had on weaponry supplied to Ukraine when he was president.

No major steps have been taken on the Tomahawk supply, however, Kalm told "Ukraine studio," following Trump again discussing with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy about the possible delivery of the missiles to Ukraine. "There were no major news arising from that, so it seems this is a moment of quiet diplomacy. When decisions get made, they will be made public, but at least there haven't been any major disputes, so in that sense everything is quietly functioning," Kalm said.

Show host Reimo Sildvee noted that Trump has recently stopped publicly praising Russian President Vladimir Putin, which Kalm put down to the tactic not working.

"I would call that flattering rhetoric — trying to bring Putin to the table through kindness. Now that it is clear this hasn't borne fruit, a recalibration is going on. I think they haven't yet reached the so-called whipping phase, where you actually show strength to Putin," said Kalm.

Supplying Tomahawks would mark a major shift for the US, though; a weapon of that effectiveness has not yet been entrusted to the Ukrainians, and it would also lessen the extent to which the attacks Ukraine makes, ie on oil facilities, mirror those Russia makes too.

"It's unfortunate that they weren't entrusted earlier," said Kalm. "They could have been given much sooner, but we can see that so far the Ukrainians have carried out attacks on Russian territory without it leading to massive escalation. This gives all the more reason to give them weapons that can reach further. So far, the targets have mainly been energy infrastructure — the same kind of targets Russia hits in Ukraine."

Kalm said that giving weapons to a country at war always carries the risk that they could fall into enemy hands, but otherwise it would make sense to provide them. "I'm glad the US administration has finally reached this point after all these years of war — they've been asking for them for a long time," she added.
Using Tomahawks could increase the pressure on Putin to take part in negotiations as well, Kalm said.

"It depends on how many systems you give and how frequently they can be used. We've seen that Putin is holding up quite well — he doesn't care about his the suffering of the people. But the fact that several oil refineries have been bombed out of commission does exert domestic pressure in Russia, which actually makes Putin's situation harder," Kalm went on.

Russia has publicly claimed that delivering Tomahawks would not change anything on the front line, even as it has followed the usual mutually contradicting statements, in this case that it would also represent an escalation.

"[Putin] has said it would cool their recently improved relations with the United States," Kalm went on, adding that since there has been no meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy so far, Trump has no grounds to improve relations with Moscow. "This simply creates a new dynamic in the conflict, which helps move it forward — and that's positive in any case."

Kalm noted that given their range, Tomahawks would give Ukraine the capability to strike Moscow too, even if they don't get used to that end.

"This creates a strategic dilemma. Zelenskyy himself said they don't necessarily intend to use them. It's just about creating a small dilemma in Russia's mind — how far they want to push things when Ukraine theoretically has the capability to target the Kremlin," said Kalm. The host asked whether Trump might provide Ukraine with a so-called list of prohibited targets, as has been the case with previous US-supplied weapons.

"Anything is possible, but it seems to me that at least with Trump, this is the positive aspect — he's less of a restrictions person. When something is done, he's fully in it. The limitations may come from elsewhere. It depends on the US's own risk assessment — how likely they consider escalation, how likely they think the Russians might respond with a nuclear step, and so on. It all depends on the balance, but I feel that Trump tends to make bolder moves than, say, the [Joe] Biden administration did," she continued.

As to whether resolving the Gaza conflict might shift attention back to Ukraine, Kalm replied that she remained skeptical that a Gaza ceasefire would go beyond a prisoner exchange in any case. He noted that Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, might then start engaging more with Moscow; previous such efforts had previously led to confusion, however, and might point to Special Envoy to Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg being a better choice for this mission, Kalm noted.

"When Keith Kellogg has handled these matters, it has perhaps had a more positive effect for Ukraine," she said.

As to the recent "failure" of President Trump to win the Nobel Peace Prize, awarded to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, Kalm noted that the peace prize was awarded for achievements in 2024, before he was back in office. "Perhaps he just turned it into such a big issue himself, hence why it was on everyone's minds, but I think if he manages to broker more peace deals, then there would be a legitimate reason to award him the prize."

Background:

President Zelenskyy has long been lobbying for Tomahawk missiles, but the potential US Indo-Pacific pivot could limit initial supplies. Additionally, the US has been producing fewer Tomahawks, although output is expected to be increased now.

While ATACMS fired from HIMARS has a range of up to 500 kilometers, the Tomahawk's range is much longer — 1,500 to 2,500 kilometers, depending on the variant . This extra range comes with reduced mobility, however as Tomahawks have typically been launched from submarines or surface vessels, which Ukraine lacks. The new Typhon missile system allows for land-based launches.

Most of Ukraine's strikes on Russian facilities have been carried out with drones, effective for targets that tend to catch fire. Tomahawks, however, would enable strikes on a broader range of targets, including Russian drone production facilities. Another missile option is the Flamingo, which Ukraine has produced itself , although this is less tried and tested than the Tomahawk.

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