Support for the Center Party in Tallinn stands at 45.3 percent in the latest Norstat local election survey, up slightly from 44.9 percent a week earlier. At the beginning of August, however, Center's support in the capital was 38.1 percent, meaning the rating of Mihhail Kõlvart's party has been steadily rising. In the previous local elections, Center took 45.4 percent of the vote in Tallinn.

At the same time, EKRE (6.3 percent) and especially Parempoolsed (5.2 percent) are hovering near the electoral threshold in the most recent poll. If either fails to make it in, enough votes would be redistributed that Center could end up with an absolute majority. In the last election, only 3.1 percent of votes were redistributed, which meant the "boost" Center received was minimal, leaving the party short of sole power in the capital.

"As things stand, we see that both EKRE and Parempoolsed are likely to enter the Tallinn City Council. That means there is a possibility of the Center Party winning a majority, but it is not very high," political scientist Martin Mölder told ERR in his assessment of the poll results.

"But if both EKRE and Parempoolsed fail to get in, and if the Center Party's upward trend continues, then the chance of them achieving a majority in the council is quite strong. If these three things align — the party holds its strong position and both EKRE and Parempoolsed stay out of the council — then it is quite likely Center would have the opportunity to govern alone," Mölder said.

At the same time, Mölder noted the likelihood of both EKRE and Parempoolsed failing to cross the threshold is small.

"Parempoolsed are primarily competing with the Reform Party, and since Reform's position is weak, Parempoolsed have better chances. There also doesn't appear to be anything improving Reform's standing. EKRE has never had very broad support in Tallinn, but over the past year its backing has remained quite consistently above the threshold, so I think they will likely hold that stability," Mölder explained.

ERR asked Mölder whether EKRE and Parempoolsed making it into the council would rule out Center having sole power in the capital.

"That can't be said for certain. It depends on how much more Center's support grows. If it stays at the current level, then probably not. But if Center continues to improve its position and its rating climbs closer to 47 or 48 percent, then that would be enough to secure a majority in the council," Mölder said.

Curbing of voting rights mobilizing Russian-speaking voters

The sharp rise in support for the Center Party, both in Tallinn and nationwide, is primarily explained by the decision to restrict voting rights in local elections so that only Estonian and EU member state citizens can vote, which mobilized Russian-speaking voters behind Center, according to Martin Mölder.

"Center was the only party that opposed this, and as a result, on one hand, Russian voters rallied behind them. The other thing that happened in the background was that expected turnout among Russian-speaking voters in Tallinn increased significantly. It essentially rose to the same level as the expected turnout of Estonian voters. Normally, Russian-speaking voters have always been less active," Mölder said.

He also pointed out that alongside the growth in Russian-speaking voter support for Center, support for other parties among that electorate has fallen. For example, at the start of 2024, SDE had nearly 20 percent support among non-Estonian voters; now it is just five.

According to Mölder, Center's rising support in Tallinn shows that Koos and other electoral alliances targeting Russian-speaking voters do not pose a serious challenge to the party.

Another factor strengthening Center's position in the capital overall was the political turbulence around the city government this summer. "Those maneuvers by the Reform Party and its departure left many voters with the impression that things are unstable in the current city government and maybe Center isn't such a bad alternative after all," Mölder said.

He added that a longer-term upward trend is also visible among Estonian-speaking voters. "Center has now brought its support back to a meaningful level and the key factor here is the gradual return of Estonian-speaking voters to the party's side. This has already lasted more than a year and looks set to continue," the political scientist said.

Advance voting and online voting in the local government council elections will begin on October 13. Election day is October 19.

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