At the weekly briefing on Friday, Kiviselg highlighted this year's successful non-conventional attacks on Russia's shadow fleet. These have taken place in both the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, near the coasts of Libya, Italy, and Turkey, and most recently on July 6 near the port of Ust-Luga in the Gulf of Finland.

"The exact method of the attacks is still unclear, but experts believe the most likely scenario is the use of time-delayed underwater mines that are attached to the hull of the ship. Such mines typically do not cause the ship to sink in most cases, but depending on the vessel's cargo and the placement of the mine, a complete sinking cannot be ruled out," said the head of military intelligence.

The colonel said the direct impact of the attacks on combat operations is indirect and rather minor, as Russia's fleet is believed to be between 700 and 900 vessels.

However, they have highlighted Moscow's vulnerability.

"If these attacks continue, they could in the long term negatively impact the use of the shadow fleet in circumventing sanctions and thereby also the financing of the Russian Federation's war machine," Kiviselg noted.

He added that no one has claimed responsibility for these attacks so far.

Deep strikes increasing

Since the beginning of July, Russia has increased the number of complex deep strikes by approximately a third, Kiviselg said.

"While the peak number of strike assets [per day] at the end of June was 500, this has now reached 700. In addition to these attacks, short-range ballistic missile and cruise missile strikes have been carried out in volumes comparable to earlier periods," he said.

"The daily number of strike assets has now reached 750 units, and it is estimated that Russia still has the capability to further increase such attacks," the colonel added.

Kiviselg said the goal of these attacks is to overload Ukraine's air defense by targeting it with various objectives, and then to use hard-to-intercept ballistic missiles to strike high-value targets — both military and civilian.

"This tactic is not new, but the volume employed by the Russian Federation, especially in terms of attack drones, has significantly increased," he told the media.

No signs of peace

Kiviselg said the Russian armed forces are continuing ground operations as before, and there is no indication of any intention or willingness on Russia's part to end hostilities or engage in a peace process.

"The approach remains exclusively military. Diplomatic discussions with Western countries from the Russian Federation's side are rather a delaying tactic and an attempt to avoid additional sanctions," he said.

"In the near future, the only question is to what extent different branches and types of weapons will be employed, and where Russia will place the main emphasis of its military operations," the colonel continued.

Based on the intelligence overview, there have been no major tactical changes in Russia's operations.

Since the beginning of this month, the intensity of attacks has ranged between 150 and 200 per day, and the main focus of ground forces remains in Donetsk Oblast, where they are slowly advancing in the area between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, as well as around Novo Pavlivka along the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

"Ukraine is withstanding the pressure from the Russian Federation and is making every foot of land fatally difficult for the enemy to capture. This has led to a more intense campaign of deep strikes by the Russian armed forces," Kiviselg said.

"Russia's strategic objective in the war has not changed. The goal remains the exhaustion of Ukraine's armed forces and society to the breaking point, at which Ukraine is forced to surrender and brought under Russian political control," he said.

"At the same time, Russia continues to try to exploit the current situation and gain maximum effect, where Western support for Ukraine has been inconsistent and has not reached its full potential."

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