Puur was referring to fresh birth survey results which the Ministry of Social Affairs is to present today, Tuesday.

Estonia is also much nearer to EU averages in terms of ages people first become parents, than it was two decades ago.

Speaking to "Terevisioon," Puur said the factors influencing the birth rate in Estonia can be divided into two groups. Shorter-term factors include crisis-like conditions which have lasted for the past five years, starting with Covid, followed by soaring energy prices and a rapid rise in the cost of living, as well as the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. All of these have come to affect people's sense of security, Puur noted.

Alongside these, longer-term factors must also be taken into consideration. These include generations which themselves were born at a time of lower birth rates becoming parents, and also people putting off becoming a parent to a later age. The net effect is fewer births each year.

"The analysis also has shown that people's desires regarding family size, meaning how many children they wish to have, have shifted in the direction of a fall," Puur noted as an additional point.

This has led not only to a growth in the number of people who do not plan to have children at all, but also to a fall in the number of people who wish to have three or more children.

"The percentage of those who do not want children at all is not very large, but it has been growing over time. It remains somewhere at around 10 percent," Puur went on.

The average age for women to first give birth is currently 29 years in Estonia, while the average age for men becoming fathers for the first time is slightly older than that, at a little over 30.

The EU average for both categories is now around a year older, though 15–20 years ago, Puur noted, the gap was much wider.

Economic factors are significant in making the decision to have children, Puur noted, referring to a UN Population Fund study published at the start of summer titled "The Real Population Crisis" and which covered 14 countries. In the developed countries, the primary reason cited for people not having as many children as they would desire was economic constraints.

A women's health study also highlighted economic reasons in Estonia as significant obstacles. This fresh analysis ordered by the Ministry of Social Affairs showed that in Estonia, for both men and women, the higher the income, not only was the greater the desire to have children but also the higher the actual likelihood of having children.

While it is possible to pin too many hopes on state measures aimed at encouraging childbearing, these can have a positive effect, Puur went on.

For example after the large-family allowance was introduced in 2017, the likelihood of having a third child for those who had two children rose by more than the likelihood of having a second did, for those with one child.

While these figures have gone down due to the crises which came after 2017, that difference still remains, Puur added.

As one possible mitigation measure for the fall in the birth rate, the authors of the analysis proposed that the current child allowance of €80 per month up to adulthood could, at the parent's request, be paid out in a lump sum. This could be used, for example, to purchase a home. At the current allowance level, that lump sum would amount to about €17,000.

More generally, Puur noted that the housing issue has not attracted much attention in family policy so far.

Puur is due to present the factors that influence childbirth in Estonia at a ministry press conference Tuesday, and will be joined by the ministry's head of family policy Gerli Lehe, who will give an overview of the process of preparing the analysis, and Deputy Secretary General for Social Affairs Hanna Vseviov, who will be discussing possible solutions to support Estonian families and how to ensure that families' desires to have and raise children can be better realized.

Deputy secretary general: No magic bullet to raise birth rate in Estonia

"We searched for two years, but there is no single magic measure [to increase births]," Vseviov said at Monday's press conference.

At the same time, the analysis reached a firm conclusion that politically it makes sense to deal with this problem, she noted.

"As a society, we place part of the cost of raising children onto the state, as children have an important value. Estonia supports families with three children nicely enough, but in the case of one or two children, the share is smaller," Vseviov continued.

The ministry study's authors pointed out that the falling birth rate also frees up resources for society, which in turn could be directed into child-related activities via political decision.

On this, Vseviov also pointed out the importance of supporting those young people who are prepared to have children at an earlier age rather than postponing childbirth. Higher benefit payments during certain age periods and adjusting family benefits according to the cost of living were among the measures Vseviov mentioned here.

For instance, the analysis authors said benefits could be adjusted with a multiplier which takes into account the wage curve of young adults, with the measure being available to potential parents, for instance, from the beginning of the twenties, peaking in the mid-twenties, then gradually falling through to age 30.

The study authors suggested increasing family benefits to cover the rising costs of raising a child. In Estonia, the average monthly cost of raising a child in 2025 is estimated at €564.62, with current benefits covering only a portion of this.

The study proposed harmonizing the child allowance at €100 per month for all children and increasing it to cover a quarter or half of maintenance costs. It also stressed the need for other measures like housing availability and work-family reconciliation.

The authors also proposed legalizing altruistic surrogacy, currently punishable under the Estonian Penal Code, as a solution for families where women cannot carry a child themselves.

Editor's note: This piece was updated to include comments from Hanna Vseviov.

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