Voog was joined by ERR's Anvar Samost and Urmet Kook on Friday's election special webcast, to discuss the latest Kantar monthly ratings and their implications for all parties.

Voog noted that the Reform Party has had periods of low support in the past too. "In 2003 and 2004 the level was 13 percent. In 2013, the level was 17 percent," he said. Influencing factors at the time included the arrival of a new party, Res Publica, since absorbed into what is now Isamaa, as well as prime minister-to-be Andrus Ansip becoming Reform's chair.

Journalist: Unprecedented loss of confidence in Reform

At its highest points, Reform's rating had broken the 40 percent-mark.

According to Voog, Reform restored a high level of support with Ansip's arrival.

Thereafter, support was again weakened by a scandal related to party financing. Then, a new growth in support, he said, was brought about by the arrival of Kaja Kallas as party leader from summer 2018.

Samost found that Reform has been hit primarily by the loss of its core base voters, to a range of other parties or even no particular party at all. "Those people have fallen behind the Social Democrats, Parempoolsed or Isamaa. Or also among those who have no party preference. This has to be an unprecedented loss of confidence," Samost said.

Samost said this has been caused either by the tax hikes spearheaded by the Reform Party and/or by the coalition split that took place in Tallinn in June and July, culminating with Reform leaving Tallinn City Government. "That left an impression of a fumbling party. Whereas earlier the Reform Party had the image of a very competent party, then its political-technological competence has been completely lost," Samost went on.

Reform's internal disputes used to be behind closed doors, now out in the open

Kook meanwhile said Reform has been a party which mostly retained its internal contradictions within itself, and did not bring them before the public. But now, those disputes are being held out in the open. He referred to Ansip criticizing former prime minister and current EU representative for foreign affairs Kaja Kallas once again, and to former finance minister Mart Võrklaev being critical on the party's tax policy issues.

Additionally, former Riigikogu MP Ivi Eenmaa called what happened in Tallinn terrible, on the part of the party. "The criticism which has so far been under the wraps has reached the public, and it does not make the party look strong," Kook said. Voog added that in his opinion it is also a positive thing when different opinions reach the public.

Samost brought out that there have also been similar moments before with Reform, for instance during the presidential elections in 2016, when the party had different factions.

Kook inquired whether the Reform Party's current rating of 10 to 11 percent represents the bottom for the Reform Party, which it will not fall further from.

Something major would need to happen before Reform rating falls further

Voog's answer was that within that 10 to 11 percent range remains the dyed-in-the-wool Reform Party voter. "Something terrible would still have to happen for it to fall further. With this certain stability it should not fall any more," Voog said.

According to Samost, Reform support can also be negatively affected if it does badly in the local elections, that this would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. "Voters don't like losers," he noted. A possible mass media charm offensive could also have the opposite effect to the one intended, and create an additional alienating effect among voters, he said.

At the same time, Voog noted that Isamaa has always managed to significantly hike its rating before elections by campaigning.

In speaking about the rejuvenated support for the Center Party, Kook said that this party must now feel like it is in clover. "From the outset of the war in Ukraine, the Center Party's rating started to fall; a year ago the support was at 10 percent, yet now the Center Party's rating has risen to 19 percent. Nationwide they are in second place," Kook highlighted.

Center reaping benefits of other parties' errors

According to him, their rating has been helped to grow not so much by the Center Party's own actions, but by those of its competitors. He noted the church law relating to the Russian Orthodox Church in Estonia, as well as issues around voting rights, which have served to mobilize Russian-speaking voters. Kook also noted that by ethnicity, 71 percent of native Russian-speaking voters now support Center, already at the level of the Savisaar era. However, given among native Estonian speakers the rating is only 7 percent, in his words this is a continuing concern for Center, one which prevents them from achieving better results in areas where few native Russian-speaking voters live.

Voog said that the Center Party has become clearer for its supporters. "During Ratas' time things got confusing for [Center] supporters. One message was sent to Russian-speaking supporters, another to Estonian-speaking ones. Now this has been unified and has become clearer," he said.

Samost added that the Center Party has in a certain sense also been liberated by the fact that it no longer has to constantly express a position on the transition to Estonian-language education, as that course has now been decided on nationally.

Kook noted that most of the other parties are at a relatively stable support level.

Tallinn set to be a battleground in October

Voog agreed and stressed that Parempoolsed for instance have been very stable at 8 percent for the sixth month in a row now. "They are taking supporters from both the Reform Party and Isamaa," he said. Parempoolsed is contesting its first ever local elections.

Samost added that Isamaa has picked up supporters from the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE). According to Voog, Isamaa has done so from the Reform Party, too. This works in that while Isamaa is an avowedly national-conservative party, it has also historically championed free market economics. It's leader, Urmas Reinsalu, is a former foreign minister with plenty of international experience too.

Voog stated that the majority of Estonians want in any case to find themselves somewhere in the middle on the party spectrum, adding that Isamaa has also moved more towards the center under Urmas Reinsalu.

Speaking in the context of the local elections and more specifically about what is happening in Tallinn, Kook said that while in earlier local elections, the other parties had essentially given up competing with the Center Party in the Lasnamäe district, the most populous district of Tallinn and with a large Russian-speaking population, then this time the other parties have sent very strong candidates of their own to run in Lasnamäe: For instance Jüri Ratas (Isamaa) and Marina Kaljurand (SDE).

In short, while Tallinn had in the past been seen as a Center Party preserve, it is now very much being looked at as a key battleground for all parties even as Center is still the most popular party there. Center already had to go into coalition with SDE after the 2021 local elections in order to stay in office, whereas it had ruled in isolation in the capital for many years before that; its current rating, while improved, still lags a little behind the vote it actually took in 2021. On the other hand, the four-party coalition which replaced it in April last year can be seen to have not performed spectacularly, particularly with the split earlier in the summer and exit of Reform.

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