Ratings: Center to win Tallinn elections, though not by enough votes to rule alone
Support for the Center Party two months ahead of the local elections in Estonia was in Tallinn equal to that of the next three parties combined, according to a recent survey.
However the ratings, conducted by Kantar Emor on behalf of ERR, show that Center still does not have sufficient support to go it alone in the capital, meaning the party would have to enter into a coalition in order to enter office in Tallinn. The party's rating is also lower than the vote it received at the last local elections in October 2021.
Kantar Emor conducted its poll August 13–19, quizzing respondents' preferences in the local elections both nationwide and in Tallinn.
Since most candidates have not yet been made public, names were left out, meaning the results reflect voter preferences at the party brand level. These may certainly change in subsequent surveys once candidate names get added, depending on the strength or weakness of a candidate list. The Kantar Emor results also reflect the preferences of those voters who stated they definitely intend to vote in October's local elections.
By party, 38.8 percent of voters in Tallinn pledged their support for the Center Party, down from the 45.4 percent of the vote Center got in 2021.
That result gave them 38 seats at the 79-seat Tallinn City Council, meaning Center had to enter a coalition (with the Social Democrats) to remain in office. Up to that point, Center had ruled in isolation in Tallinn for around a decade-and-a-half.
The Social Democrats (SDE) rated next highest in Tallinn according to the Kantar survey, at 14.5 percent, followed by Isamaa on 13 percent.
Contesting its first ever local elections, Parempoolsed polled at 10.4 percent, ahead of the Reform Party at 9.8 percent.
While support for SDE and Isamaa is currently significantly better than at the local elections four years ago (when they stood at 7.5 and 7.1 percent respectively), the Reform's is significantly worse.
The party polled at 17.8 percent in Tallinn in 2021, winning 15 mandates, second only to the Center Party in terms of seats.
Support for the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) stood at 4.3 percent in the latest Kantar Emor poll, below the threshold of 5 percent needed to win seats under Estonia's electoral system.
Kantar Emor research expert Aivar Voog recalled that EKRE's rating was roughly the same ahead of the 2021 elections, when the survey was conducted without candidate names. With the addition of names and in a concrete election situation, EKRE should perform better, in Voog's assessment, and at least rise above the 5 percent threshold. EKRE received 9.6 percent of the Tallinn vote in 2021.
In the case of Parempoolsed, however, the question is how well its specific candidates will be able to carry forward the party brand's apparent popularity, he noted.
Eesti 200, which polled at 9.5 percent in 2021 in Tallinn, now only polled at 2.5 percent in the capital. This would leave them clearly below the election threshold.
Kantar Emor also examined voter preferences for the remaining 78 municipalities, ahead of the local elections. Here, too, the Center Party also took a clear lead, supported by 22.5 percent of those stating a definite intention to vote. This was also slightly down on the 24.4 percent of the vote the party took nationwide in 2021.
The number of people who said they would vote for an electoral alliance, political groupings unique to local elections outside of Tallinn and focused on a specific municipality's issues, came to 21.4 percent in the Kantar survey. This represented a fall from 25.7 percent who actually voted for an electoral alliance in 2021.
In second place nationwide by party came Isamaa with 16.5 percent, almost double the 8.4 percent of the vote taken in 2021.
Isamaa were followed by SDE (12.9 percent) and EKRE (11.9 percent), just ahead of Reform who polled at 11.8 percent.
Kantar Emor surveyed 1,169 permanent residents of Estonia of voting age (16+ for local elections) in the period August 13–19. EU citizens resident in Estonia may also vote in local elections.
Polling day is October 19, preceded by advance voting which starts on October 13. Candidate registration got underway on August 20.
Center was ousted from office in April 2024 after a motion of no confidence in party leader Mihhail Kõlvart, as mayor of Tallinn, passed at the city council. A Reform-Eesti 200-SDE-Isamaa coalition entered office soon after, while Reform left office in July after a coalition split on the issue of kindergarten fees.
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Editor: Urmet Kook, Andrew Whyte
