Kantar Emor conducted the nationwide survey on behalf of ERR for the month of August, finding that Isamaa is still clearly in the lead at 25 percent, up from its rating of 22 percent in July.

Firmly in second place lies the Center Party at 19 percent of support nationwide, its highest level since February 2022 when the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. Center has long been identified with the Russian-speaking vote in Estonia and had traditionally obtained much of its support from voters in Tallinn and in Ida-Viru County.

Two more opposition parties, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) and the Social Democrats (SDE), occupying opposite ends of the political spectrum, were neck-and-neck at 15 percent according to Kantar.

Next up was the Reform Party, clearly in fifth place at a rating of 11 percent, a record low for the party in Kantar surveys. Reform polled at 14 percent in July, and 18 percent in March, according to Kantar Emor.

Kantar Emor research expert Aivar Voog noted that while in July the fall in the prime minister's party rating came mainly in Tallinn, where the party was embroiled in a coalition split, eventually leaving the Tallinn City Government, in August that decline had spread to other regions as well, in some cases falling even lower than in Tallinn.

"The Reform Party's support is still stronger in Western Estonia and in the Tartu region, but particularly weak is this party's support in Southern Estonia, where it has fallen to the level of 5 percent," Voog said. Tartu has long been a Reform Party stronghold.

Support for Parempoolsed, which ranks sixth nationwide, has been highly stable for the last six months. In August the party rated at 8 percent according to Kantar.

The ratings of the remaining parties lay clearly below the electoral threshold. Coalition party Eesti 200's support remained at 2 percent. The party last polled above the 5-percent threshold required to win seats in May 2024, according to Kantar Emor.

The cumulative rating for the governing coalition meanwhile fell to 14 percent in August.

Results when voters with no preference taken out

If respondents who did not state a party preference are taken into account, Isamaa rated in August at 18 percent, Center at 13 percent, EKRE at 11 percent, SDE at 10 percent, Reform at 7.5 percent, Parempoolsed at 5 percent, and Eesti 200 at 2 percent.

Among native Estonian-speaking respondents, Isamaa lay in first place at 30 percent of support in the August Kantar survey, while again EKRE and SDE were even-stevens, at 17 percent ratings.

Support for the Reform Party among Estonian respondents stood at 12. Parempoolsed polled at 9 percent, the Center Party at 7 percent, and Eesti 200 at 4 percent

Among respondents of other nationalities, in practice overwhelmingly meaning Russian speakers, Center polled as high as 71 percent. The pro-Kremlin KOOS party came next, albeit far behind Center at 11 percent of respondents.

The result means Center's support among Russian-speaking voters has returned to the level seen under party co-founder and some time Tallinn mayor Edgar Savisaar, who passed away in December 2022.

EKRE's support among respondents of other nationalities came to 6 percent, followed by SDE at 5 percent, and Reform's at 4 percent. Isamaa polled at just 1.5 percent within this demographic.

Following a constitutional amendment, the right to vote was taken away from all third-country nationals resident in Estonia. While the move was aimed at curbing the influence of Russian and Belarusian citizens ordinarily resident in Estonia and who could previously vote, it affects all third-country nationals. "Gray passport" holders, meaning those with no citizenship but who are resident in Estonia, can vote at this October's local elections for the last time.

Kantar Emor quizzed 1,547 voting-age citizens across Estonia August 13–19, claiming a maximum possible margin of error of ± 2.3 percent. The survey was conducted both online and over the phone.

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