Trump has expressed his disappointment in Russia's actions so far and has pledged fresh military aid to Ukraine. This, Kaju said, shows a shift has occurred in the U.S. administration.

Speaking to "Ukraina stuudio," Kaju said: "An agreement has been made on a mechanism whereby various NATO member states will start to purchase heavy weaponry from America, so that Ukraine can be provided with everything necessary for its defense. This is a change in some sense for sure, as since January, the main effort of the American administration has clearly been aimed at bringing the Russians to the table through goodwill declarations and by developing negotiations, in the hope that this will quickly lead to a ceasefire and then to a longer process resulting in a lasting peace agreement. That has not happened."

According to Kaju, within the U.S. Republican Party and Trump's close circle, the number of people blaming the Russian administration and Putin for deceiving Trump has been growing.

"Also Trump himself has said one or two things on this theme. In any case, time will tell whether the decision, announced on Monday, is a long-term policy shift or is merely an American step such that once again the Russians will be brought to the negotiating table," the expert continued.

Kaju also expressed skepticism over the sending of weapons and systems to Europe being simply a money-spinner for the U.S. and for Trump, since Europe would have to pay for defense orders.

"If we look at the communications of the past few days – Trump's weekend statements or Lindsey Graham's interview on CBS's 'Face the Nation' – they aren't talking about money matters. This is not the main point. The core message in Trump and his associates' rhetoric is, or at least the impression is given that it is, that there is no option to negotiate with Putin via other way. It is needed that Ukraine must be provided with arms, because this way in which Putin attacks civilian infrastructure and populations – the scenes Americans see on television – prompts a change in behavior," said the expert.

According to Kaju, Trump's sentiment toward Ukraine's civilian population wouldn't be the first time war events have deeply influenced his opinion.

"Let us call to mind the actions of the Syrian regime in gassing and bombing its civilian population, where Trump was clearly moved, and showed that, in his interview with a Ukrainian BBC journalist. In early 1940, the vast majority of the American public was still against helping the Brits in World War II, but it was the media's work that broke not Roosevelt – who supported aiding the Brits – but [broke] this circle surrounding the president. Civilian suffering has clearly been something that contributes to changes in America's course," said Kaju.

Similar compassion has been characteristic of U.S. presidents and their close associates in other cases too, Kaju argued.

"Generally, we can't blame U.S. presidents for imagining that once they take the stage, they will immediately start negotiating and achieve some major breakthroughs. The person who met with the Russians the most through history was Reagan, who also had great expectations, while later it turned out these might not have been unfounded. Reagan's surrounding security apparatus was strongly against that, as they weren't willing to trust a B-movie actor – their words, not mine – on the major stage, facing professional, career negotiators, in other words, the Russians," Kaju outlined.

Putin's character hasn't necessarily come as a major surprise to Americans, even as, according to Kaju, there has been an attempt to resolve the war diplomatically.

"Our best contribution might be that, over the past six months, really those various opponents who have stood on that stage have demonstrated that a negotiation space based only on positive incentives – be they trade deals, various tech, the economic growth that Trump can offer – achieves nothing. He has sent his special envoy [Steve] Witkoff to dole out the promises, but that has been of no utility. The Russians have not offered any goodwill in return, yet have tried to take every square centimeter they could during that time, and it seems that President Trump has grasped that goodwill alone won't work," the policy expert added.

Kaju said he also believes that the U.S. has used Witkoff, actually envoy to the Middle East, in Russia, to test the waters, and to get an understanding of Russia's vision for the future.

"This entire negotiation matrix – on the one hand with the Russians, on the other with the Ukrainians – has been somewhat confusing for us all. Witkoff's role as a special envoy – he was initially supposed to be a Middle East envoy – has clearly been to try, somewhat sincerely and directly, in personal contact with Putin, to understand whether negotiations are viable and what the conditions might be," Kaju continued.

In the expert's estimation, the U.S. has finally realized that in Russia, only one person decides the course of war and everything else: And that person is Vladimir Putin.

"I think Americans now understand what we in Estonia had known for a long time – that in the Russian Federation, as in America, one person makes the decisions, and if that person has no interest in negotiating until he believes he can still achieve his military-political goals, then he won't talk," Kaju summed up.

Trump this week announced the U.S. will be sending advanced weapons to Ukraine, via NATO, with European countries contributing Patriot air defense systems. At the same time, he will be imposing 100 percent secondary tariffs on Russia's trade partners if peace isn't achieved within 50 days.

Despite this, the EU has strongly opposed a U.S. threat of 30 percent tariffs on imports from the bloc, warning of countermeasures worth US $24.5 billion if this goes ahead.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook, Bluesky and X and never miss an update!