"It seems to me that one thing we can be certain of is that President Trump has realized that if he continues his current policy — the way he has tried to mediate the Russia-Ukraine war toward a peace agreement — it won't work. Pressure on Russia needs to be increased. And now he is trying to do that," Saks told "Vikerhommik" on Wednesday.

"He feels that he has personally been made a fool of by Russia. And there's a deep truth to that. Russia is quite consciously trying to do exactly that. For Russia, it's not only about conquering Ukraine but also about weakening the West. This kind of image-based weakening has always played a central role in Russia's actions. So in that sense, I believe some change has occurred. But that does not mean the U.S. has decided to commit to Ukraine's military victory. That's an entirely different matter," he added.

On Monday, Trump gave Russia 50 days to reach a peace deal with Ukraine, or else he will impose 100 percent tariffs on Russia's trade partners.

Saks said this is not the most successful deadline for an ultimatum in the current context.

"We've seen before that threats and ultimatums tied to deadlines — and not only toward Russia — have not worked in practice. The U.S. strikes on Iran may have slightly boosted the perceived impact of such ultimatums. But the situation with Russia is different. And if we look at Iran again, that process has gone nowhere. Iran has not come to the negotiating table or accepted the demands made in the ultimatum. So in that sense, this latest ultimatum from President Trump may make headlines for a day, but if we look at the aftermath and what analysts are writing, everyone is saying it's a questionable ultimatum, one that is unlikely to be enforced," he reflected.

Two years of stalemate on the front line

Speaking about the situation at the front, Saks said that there have been no major changes on the front line since the spring of 2023.

"Only in isolated spots has the Russian army managed to advance slightly. But militarily, this does not give them a decisive advantage or the ability to make the Ukrainian army feel like it's losing," he said.

"Right now, the question is purely whether the heavy losses suffered by the Russian army will even allow it to continue this operation in its current form. That is very hard to calculate because we do not know how long Russia can keep recruiting new soldiers. The Russian president is clearly avoiding a full mobilization and does not want to go that route. That is one side of it," Saks said.

"The other side is that Ukraine is also not able to fight entirely on its own. Western support is extremely decisive here. And if that support does not become more effective, this war in its current form could drag on for a very long time," he added.

According to Saks, we cannot speak of a Russian summer offensive because Russia is trying to advance steadily all the time.

"The Russian army does not conduct campaigns. The order from the Russian president is to push forward continuously, with no pause in combat operations where the tempo is intentionally slowed. Any such pauses are forced by Ukrainian resistance. There wasn't any real pause this spring — the Russian forces were simply exhausted and needed to regroup, which leads to these operational pauses. Even weather conditions today have much less impact on combat than is often written," the former secretary general of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2015-2020) said.

Ukraine lacks long-range strike and air defense capabilities

Saks pointed out that Ukraine lacks two critical elements that would increase Russian losses.

"One is long-range strike capabilities to hit the Russian army's rear, which would further reduce Russia's ability to conduct military operations. This would allow them to target logistics, command centers, and other high-value targets about 300 kilometers or more into Russian-held territory," he said.

"The other is air defense. If Ukraine could ensure freedom of operation and protect its cities with it, the perception in the media would shift to understanding that Russia actually cannot effectively attack Ukraine. That psychological impact would be huge — both for Russia and its supporters," Saks added.

Sanctions also play a significant role. "It's definitely important how sanctions are imposed and enforced. If we look at the fact that the European Union has still not adopted the 18th sanctions package, which has already been drawn up and is supposed to target Russia's oil industry, all these factors motivate Russia to continue the war. It absolutely does not help move toward any kind of negotiations," Saks said.

"The West's uncertainty, inconsistency, and reluctance to escalate pressure motivate the Russian leadership to continue military action and also give them an opening to act toward countries like India and China in ways where we do not see such consistent enforcement of sanctions. That's been a broader issue from the very start of the war — sanctions are imposed, but the surrounding policy is inconsistent and gives Russia room to maneuver. Unfortunately, this is something Western countries fail to grasp," he told the show.

Criticizing Ukraine's government reshuffle is misplaced

Regarding Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's changes in government personnel, Saks said it was normal and expected.

"The war has lasted three and a half years, and because of the war, normal political processes in Ukraine have stopped. That means, according to the Ukrainian Constitution — as in many countries under martial law — elections are not held. So there have been no presidential or parliamentary elections. In such circumstances, expecting the cabinet to remain static is ridiculous," said Saks.

"President Zelenskyy has to make occasional changes. It is obvious that you cannot continue for so long with the exact same team — then you would be criticized for the opposite reason. In general, I think external criticism in this situation is misplaced. President Zelenskyy must keep his government functional. People get worn out during wartime; they work under immense pressure. There may be a hundred different reasons. Some adjustments are necessary from time to time. So I do not see anything abnormal about this process. It's a fairly typical political process playing out in Ukraine," he said.

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