Speaking at the Friday's weekly Ministry of Defense briefing, Kiviselg said: "Russia's summer offensive, which is now in its second month, primarily in eastern Ukraine, has effectively stalled, thanks to Ukraine's determined defense, while it has transmuted into tactical-level combat in which the Russians are trying to continue advancing despite heavy losses."

He stated that the intensity of Russian attacks has remained at the same level this week as before, with 150–160 attacks per day.

"Based on the assaults which have occurred so far, it is certainly evident that the Russian Federation's main effort lies in the Pokrovsk area of Donetsk oblast, where half of the combat engagements are still taking place," Kiviselg continued.

Commenting on the limited success of Russian forces in their incursion into Ukraine's Sumy oblast, bordering Russia's Kursk oblast, the intelligence chief noted that, despite initial gains and continued attempts, Russian progress there has been largely arrested.

"The Ukrainians themselves have explained the Russians' initial success in saying they were not well enough prepared and lacked defensive structures in that area – a mistake they have since put right," he added.

"On future operations, the assessment remains that, although Russian strategic goals and plans have not changed, despite their efforts the Russians have been incapable of achieving an operational-level breakthrough in any section of the front, while the Ukrainian armed forces are able to manage the pressure," Kiviselg summed up.

Kiviselg: Clear method in Russia's airstrikes

As for Russia's cruise and ballistic missile and drone attacks, Kiviselg said a clear pattern has emerged.

While Russia deploys about 150 mass attack drones per day on average, it hits Ukraine with 60–70 drones over four to five days, accumulating the rest of its capability and then launching a massive drone strike of 350–450 drones in any one day.

The EDF says this figure also matches with Russia's approximate weekly production capacity of Geran-type drones.

A similar pattern applies to the use of ballistic and cruise missiles, Kiviselg added.

According to Kiviselg, instead of targeting a single object, Russia is increasingly using dispersed strikes against a variety of targets and is attacking more and more civilian infrastructure and residential areas.

"The new norm is that while attacks on civilian infrastructure and residential areas used to happen episodically, they can now be seen on an increasingly massive scale – particularly highlighted by recent examples: The overnight attack on Kyiv on June 17, and the attack on Odesa overnight into Friday.

"This still shows the will of the Russian Federation – that when they cannot achieve the expected success on the battlefield, they resort to outright terrorism tactics, attacking civilian targets with the aim of exerting psychological pressure on the population," he stated.

Fall in rate of Russian drone strikes may be anticipated

Kiviselg also stated that a reduction in Russian drone strikes cannot be ruled out, which may be the result of the war initiated by Israel against Iran, even as Russia is now making its own Shahed-type loitering munitions, licensed by Iran.

"While it can be surmised that Russia has largely localized and transferred the production of [Iranian] Shahed and Geran-type drones to Russia, it can be assumed that several critical components for drone production still come from Iran," he noted.

"We know that Israel has had the opportunity to attack and destroy the Geran-type drone factory in Isfahan, while the Ukrainians have continually attacked the drone factory in Alabuga, Tatarstan, which produces the same type of drones for the Russian army."

"This means there is a chance we may see a decline in drone usage in the near future. At the same time, we are fully convinced that the Russian Federation is already planning follow-up actions not only to maintain drone production but also to increase it," Kiviselg concluded.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook, Bluesky and X and never miss an update!