Poll: Reform slumps to fourth place

Support for the Reform Party has dropped to 15.9 percent in the Riigikogu election poll, the lowest level since early 2019, Norstat's latest survey shows.
According to the latest results, the top three most popular parties are Isamaa (27.9 percent), EKRE (18.8 percent), and the Center Party (16.3 percent). The results have not changed significantly over the last week.
Following the top three are Reform (15.9 percent) and the Social Democratic Party (10.9 percent). This is Reform's lowest rating since 2019 when the pollster started tracking party preferences. Eesti 200 has the lowest support (2.9 percent).
Among non-parliamentary parties, the Parempoolsed has a rating of 4.9 percent, and the Greens 1.0 percent.
The coalition parties together are supported by 18.8 percent of respondents, while 73.9 percent support opposition parties in the Riigikogu.
Political scientist Martin Mölder also calculated a possible distribution of Riigikogu seats based on the current support levels. Isamaa would receive 33 seats (+25 compared with the last Riigikogu elections), EKRE 21 (+4), the Center Party 18 (+2), the Reform Party 18 (−19), and SDE 11 seats (+2).
The latest aggregate results reflect the polling period from June 2 to July 6, during which a total of 4,002 eligible Estonian citizens were surveyed.
The maximum margin of error depends on the size of the largest group ranging from 1.69 percent to 0.63 percent.
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Editor: Urmet Kook, Helen Wright