Norstat's latest survey from June 16 to July 7 includes the Tallinn leadership crisis that became public on June 2. Both Center and Reform announced they wanted to scrap kindergarten fees, setting off a month-long municipal spectacle.

Voter preferences in the capital put Center firmly in the lead with 37 percent support. In the 79-seat Tallinn City Council, this would translate to 32 mandates, six fewer than in 2021.

Isamaa holds second place in Tallinn with 17.5 percent support, which would give them 15 seats, 10 more than at the last election.

The Reform Party is in third place with 14.7 percent, which would give them 13 seats, a drop of two.

Close behind is the Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 14.5 percent and 12 mandates, twice the number won in 2021.

EKRE would also surpass the council threshold, with 7.9 percent support and seven mandates, one less.

Both Parempoolsed (3.5 percent support) and Eesti 200 (1.8 percent) would fall below the council threshold based on current figures. In the previous local elections, Eesti 200 received 9.5 percent and eight seats on the council.

Possible coalitions

Based on this survey, Isamaa, the Reform Party, and SDE would secure 40 seats in Tallinn, giving the three parties a fragile majority.

Meanwhile, the current opposition parties, Center and EKRE, would receive 39 seats.

A stronger coalition would involve the Center party and Isamaa, Reform, or SDE.

Crisis boosts Center, weakens Reform

Since the last poll, Center saw the biggest gain (from 35.1 percent to 37 percent), while Reform experienced the steepest drop (from 16.9 percent to 14.7 percent).

Other parties' support remained largely unchanged.

The shift is particularly notable when comparing Reform and Isamaa's ratings. In the survey released on June 9, the parties' support was equal. But by the peak of the crisis, a clear lead had emerged for Isamaa.

This means that, in a hypothetical coalition of Isamaa, the Reform Party, and SDE, the mayor's role would go with Isamaa, assuming current support stays the same.

Isamaa leads in Tartu over Reform Party

In Tartu, where the Reform Party has been in power for years, Isamaa is now the frontrunner according to Norstat's survey.

The party's support in the university town stands at 28.4 percent, which would give them 16 seats on the 49-member Tartu City Council. In the previous election, Isamaa received nearly 10 percent and five seats.

Reform support stands at 19.6 percent, translating to 11 mandates. Four years ago, the party had 37 percent support and 19 seats.

Until the end of May, the party was the most popular with 27.1 percent. Exactly what is behind the slump is not known. One explanation could be the deal to house Swedish prisoners in the city's half-empty prison.

In Tartu, EKRE and SDE are essentially tied for third and fourth place, with 16.0 and 15.7 percent respectively, each projected to win eight seats. EKRE also received eight mandates four years ago, while SDE won five.

The Center Party's support in Tartu is at 11.4 percent, which would give them six seats, an increase of two.

Norstat's results show Eesti 200 would not clear the 5 percent election threshold. The party received 16 percent and eight council seats in Tartu in 2021.

Nationwide support

Nationwide, Isamaa leads with 21.9 percent support for the local elections, followed by Center (19.9 percent), electoral alliances (15.1 percent), EKRE (14.5 percent), the Reform Party (12.2 percent), SDE (9.6 percent), Parempoolsed (2.5 percent), Eesti 200 (1.7 percent), Koos (1.3 percent), ERK (0.6 percent), and the Greens (0.6 percent).

In the 2021 local elections, the Center Party received 24.4 percent support nationwide, and electoral alliances 24.3 percent. The Reform Party had 17.3 percent, EKRE 13.2 percent, Isamaa 8.4 percent, Eesti 200 six percent, and SDE five percent.

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