Defense minister candidate Martin Herem has said in the media that, if he becomes minister, he wants the government to update the wording of its threat assessment because, in his view, the war in Ukraine could end within six months, after which Russia may need only another six months before it could use military force against Estonia.

Pevkur noted that if the threat assessment is changed, the information on which it is based must be objective and politically independent.

"This is one area where I would very, very strongly urge the future defense minister to bear in mind that intelligence early warnings and the information that goes into them cannot be politically commissioned. You cannot tell intelligence officers for political reasons to write a particular intelligence warning or preliminary assessment for you. Professionals do that based on their best judgment and the best information available, gathering intelligence themselves and speaking with partners, and an independent, objective intelligence assessment is then compiled on that basis. If anyone starts interfering with that politically, it is a very, very wrong path to take and so I sincerely hope there will be no political pressure on intelligence officers to describe the situation beyond our borders in a particular way," Pevkur said.

Defense minister candidate Martin Herem told ERR in an interview that a year from now Russia could use military force of an unknown scale against Estonia, but before that happens, Estonia must consider whether its preparations are sufficient to eliminate that force.

"The first step is to consider how quickly the war in Ukraine might come to an end. I would say that could happen within six months. Probably not tomorrow, but we should set some kind of deadline, and I think it could be within six months, though it be within three years. As to what the shortest possible time-frame is, I would say six months.," Herem said.

Pevkur also noted that since the criticism leveled by the National Audit Office over disarray in the Estonian Defense Forces relates to the period when Herem was commander of the Defense Forces, he will now have to address those concerns substantively.

"The accounting of the Defense Forces' stocks and assets definitely needs significant improvement. If you look at who was responsible for these matters at the time, Gen. [Veiko-Vello] Palm (expected to be on Herem's team once he takes office — ed.) was also involved when it came to materiel management and everything related to it. So I very much hope Martin Herem understands that these problems with accounting for the Defense Forces' assets and stocks date back to his time in charge and that he takes very seriously the fact that the National Audit Office's audit report is not simply some accounting issue, but something that needs to be addressed substantively," Pevkur said.

Regarding the departure of Ministry of Defense Permanent Secretary Kaimo Kuusk, Pevkur said that because the next six to eight months will be extremely critical, with Russia expected to engage in "soft" interference in elections taking place in several European countries, they could not allow a situation in which the future defense minister and the current secretary general could not work together.

"Over these six months, we cannot have a situation where the Ministry of Defense's permanent secretary and minister are glaring at each other from across the room or across the hallway. It is in the interests of Estonia's security to ensure that the Ministry of Defense's leadership functions and that can only happen if the permanent secretary and the minister are in lockstep," he said.

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