A shortfall in projected tax revenues since the break came into effect at the end of last year is not solely due to that break, Tein said.

Tein's comments come after Isamaa leader Urmas Reinsalu said the tax break would cost the state €31 million in lost revenues, while Cultural Endowment (Kultuurikapital) head Margus Allikmaa called the tax cut an "unjustifiable" move which had left the culture sector with less funding.

The tax cut, introduced last December, was aimed at attracting more online casinos to register in Estonia, with the rate set to drop from six percent to four percent over two years. While gambling tax revenue fell by 9.7 percent in the first seven months of 2026, Tein said the decline was not caused by the remote gambling tax cut alone.

"A 9.7 percent decline in total gambling tax receipts is not the 'loss' caused by the remote gambling tax cut. The legislative amendment changed the remote gambling tax rate. But total gambling tax also includes [state lottery] Eesti Loto and traditional gambling, whose tax rates were not reduced by this reform," Tein said.

He pointed to the two‑month legislative error at the start of the year and noted that the Cultural Endowment's shortfall from remote gambling stood at around €956,000 — a fraction of the total gap.

Tein also rejected Reinsalu's €31 million figure, calling it a forecast and not a guaranteed loss, and warned that hiking the rate from 5 percent to 7 percent would translate into a 40 percent higher tax burden on businesses.

"The €31 million mentioned in today's report is also a forecast. Reinsalu himself told ERR that, according to the Finance Ministry's forecast, this is a figure calculated through 2029 compared with the previous assumption. That calculation assumes, among other things, how the tax base will behave in the future. It is precisely this assumption for which I want to see an impact assessment," Tein said.

The MP also noted that six companies that had not previously operated in Estonia have received operating permits in 2026 — already more than in all of 2025. "It would be equally mistaken to claim that the eight new operators that entered the market in 2024 came because the tax was raised from 5 percent to 6 percent," he said, adding that there is a long lag between a company's decision, obtaining a licence, and actual tax revenue.

Tein said the 2026 tax year is also a transitional period, with operators moving to stricter security and anti‑money laundering requirements. He warned that raising the tax rate now could undermine the long‑term goal of attracting larger international operators.

"The Cultural Endowment's interest should not be to have the highest possible tax rate. It should be to have the largest possible sustainable amount of actual tax revenue reaching culture and sport," Tein said.

"My position is therefore simple: let's give the agreed strategy time. If someone wants to reverse it now, I would first like to see an impact assessment showing that a higher tax rate will provide Estonia and the Cultural Endowment with more tax revenue that is actually collected three or five years from now," he concluded.

Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform) has said the government will hold a debate on the issue in the coming weeks, adding that culture must not lose out and that if the tax cut does not bring additional revenue, there will be no further reduction.

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