Recent court decisions have significantly restricted bear hunting in Estonia, and Peep Männil, a wildlife expert at the Environment Agency, expects the country's brown bear population to grow faster as a result.

That could mean more agricultural damage, greater impacts on other wildlife and more encounters with people, including potential attacks.  

Estonia was home to about 1,100 brown bears as of fall 2025, according to agency estimates. The population has grown by an average of 5 percent a year over the past decade, with growth accelerating in recent years.

Männil explained that officials estimate bear numbers using sightings, particularly of females with cubs, rather than trying to count individual animals. More than 7,000 observations were recorded across Estonia last year, most by hunters and other wildlife enthusiasts using trail cameras.

The Environment Agency then maps and analyzes the resulting data, in the same approach used to estimate wolf, lynx and other wildlife populations.

No deadly attacks

While the abundance of sightings and trail-camera images can make it seem like there are suddenly far more bears in Estonia, Männil said bear numbers have actually been growing steadily for about 20 years already.

"The growth rate of the bear population will likely increase now, which is logical," he said, commenting on recently tightened hunting restrictions.

The expert said a growing bear population could lead to more crop damage as well as affect moose numbers, as bears prey heavily on moose calves in their first weeks of life.

"Studies in Sweden have found that the impact [on moose] can be quite significant," he added.

While the risk to people remains relatively low in Estonia, Männil warned that a larger bear population still also means a greater chance of dangerous encounters.

Seven bear attacks on people have been recorded in Estonia in the past 25 years. None were fatal, but three resulted in injuries, most recently in 2022. Four occurred during hunting situations, after the bear had been shot.

"That number is too small to draw any conclusions about an upward trend, but the likelihood of more such incidents will certainly increase," he said.

Simple safety tips

Männil explained that attacks here are generally defensive rather than predatory, and can occur when a person and bear unexpectedly encounter each other at close range. The possibility of an encounter, however, should not keep people out of the woods.

"It would be so unfortunate if people stopped foraging for mushrooms or spending time in nature because they're afraid there are too many bears," he said.

With risks rising as bear numbers grow, the agency expert stressed that careful wildlife management is increasingly important.

"One of the broader goals of hunting is to prevent these kinds of large swings in wildlife populations as much as possible," Männil said. "They're no good for the species themselves or for the balance between species."

While urban sightings do happen, encounters are more likely while hiking or foraging. A few simple tips shared by the Estonian Hunters' Society (EJS) can help keep you safe if you run into a brown bear in the wild.

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