Russia has lately been stepping up its long-range missile and drone strikes on cities, most notably the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, in order to wear down Ukrainian morale.

At the same time this diverts from the fact that Russia was able to take an average of just one square kilometer of Ukrainian territory per day in June this year; this is just a sixteenth of the daily total it took in the same month in 2025.

While marginal gains have been seen by Russia over the past month or so on all fronts, losses are up several-fold compared with the situation a year ago, noted Gert Kaju, head of the defense readiness department at the Ministry of Defense.

"As an example, in June [2026] Russia managed to seize around 30 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, which amounts to roughly one square kilometer of progress per day. By comparison, a year ago, during the same period in June, Russia captured about 500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, meaning its advance [then] averaged around 16 square kilometers per day," Kaju said.

Ukraine intercepted the bulk of the missiles, including cruise missiles, and long-range drones Russia sent against Ukraine overnight Wednesday to Thursday this week, but some still got through and struck Kyiv, killing over 20 people and injuring close to 100.

The actions are as much for Russian domestic consumption while its forces are otherwise bogged down, security expert Raivo Vare said.

"This shows that they have not actually managed to achieve any meaningful initiative or major strategic momentum as part of the broader offensive that reportedly began in the spring. The situation has stabilized to some extent, but now they need to demonstrate strategic initiative publicly, including to their own domestic audience," Vare noted.

Kaju said the attacks in any case exerted no significant impact on the overall dynamics of the war, leaving their intention unclear.

"This is more of a desperate attack as, militarily, it cannot inflict any meaningful damage on Ukraine. Russia is simply wasting these missiles, using them to kill people," noted another security expert, Rainer Saks.

In response to this week's deadly strikes on Kyiv, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said she would be proposing sanctions against many more institutions and companies which shore up Russia's military-industrial sector. Vare said this proposal represented a more significant breakthrough than previous measures. "Up to now, sanctions have been introduced periodically in packages. But the timing now — where if you commit atrocities, you will pay for them — is, in practical terms, something new in EU policy," Vare said.

Words of condemnation alone will not stop attacks on Kyiv. Only sustained military support for Ukraine and increased pressure on Moscow can do that.

This week, the EU has started disbursing €6 billion under the €90 billion support loan to strengthen Kyiv's defences.

Today, I…

— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) July 2, 2026

There is however little enthusiasm in Europe as a whole for imposing additional sanctions; the bloc recently announced its 21st round. Targeting individual companies or people is unlikely to prove decisive in the war's outcome in any case, many experts say, as these are not at the heart of Russia's ability to continue its war.

"What really needs to be sanctioned is Russia's mineral production and exports. That is the only measure that can significantly limit Russia's ability to sustain the war over the long term," Saks noted.

Russia launched one of its largest air attacks of the war on Kyiv overnight Wednesday into Thursday, killing at least 30 people and injuring 91 in nearly 12 hours of drone and missile strikes. Ukrainian officials said the sustained, multi-wave assault damaged more than 30 sites, including homes, a kindergarten and a Red Cross warehouse, while Russia said it targeted military infrastructure. The attack followed a pattern Ukrainian officials say is intended to overwhelm air defenses.

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