Weather forecasts are based on complex atmospheric physics equations solved using different algorithms by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS). Because Estonia lies at the meeting point of continental and maritime air masses, forecasts here often diverge. Local forecasters are left to find a compromise between the different scenarios.

Current radar images indicate that rain clouds approaching from the west have stalled, making the forecast for the coming days more reliable for meteorologists.

"Temperatures during the day will rise above 20 degrees Celsius and at night they won't drop significantly below 10 degrees, so it's actually quite pleasant. [...] The weather will generally be nice and at around 9 p.m. temperatures will still certainly be around 15 to 16 degrees," Pedassaar said on the morning TV show "Terevisioon."

Pedassaar therefore said there is a very high probability that conditions will remain dry across a large part of Estonia.

"But we do have to look a little to the west and a little to the south — it certainly won't be 100 percent dry. There will still be some rain showers somewhere in the afternoon, but they may well be gone by late evening. The rainfall amounts won't be particularly significant. I'm not even sure people will need to take out an umbrella," Pedassaar said.

The synoptic situation in the days leading up to the holiday shows much sharper contrasts in the atmosphere, bringing a brief rise in temperatures over the weekend. The rapid changing of air masses will result in localized rain showers.

"First of all, we should be happy because it's going to get warmer. If we look at which day will be the warmest, it's Sunday, but on Sunday that warmth will actually culminate in rain showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening," the forecaster said.

Immediately after Midsummer Day, new low-pressure systems will reach the Baltic Sea, although predicting exactly when rain will arrive remains something of a technical lottery. New data inputs are shifting the expected rain front back and forth by several hours.

"If I had been sitting here yesterday, I would have said that on the 25th it would pour from morning until evening and that rain from the west would reach us. This morning (Thursday), the picture looked much more hopeful: On the 24th, that rainfall is still stalled — perhaps it won't arrive until the evening or the following night," Pedassaar said.

However, the moist air masses will eventually overcome the dry high-pressure system.

"On one of those two days, we'll have to put up with wetter and windier weather, if we're talking about the 24th and 25th. As things stand today, the 24th still looks very pleasant," Pedassaar added.

Longer view

While short-term weather forecasting focuses on day-to-day changes, longer-term climate models assess the coming summer against 30-year statistical norms. Estonia's natural environment is not expected to face major extremes in July, as meteorological models forecast a nationwide average rainfall total of 67 millimeters, which is in line with the seasonal norm. The outlook follows a familiar summer pattern and does not point to widespread weather disruptions.

August appears markedly drier than average in the models, offering the agricultural sector a much-needed respite after last year's flooding. Nearly 300 millimeters of rain fell last summer, exceeding the long-term average by almost 50 percent. The persistent rainfall damaged soil structure and left crops submerged.

Against the backdrop of global warming, scientists are no longer surprised to see summer temperature curves steadily shift upward. Official heat warnings have gone from being an anomaly to a regular occurrence.

"In terms of temperature, practically every summer has, by and large, been warmer than average. We've been issuing heat warnings every summer — in some summers more often, in others less so," Pedassaar said.

According to the laws of physics, an atmosphere that is one degree warmer can hold significantly more moisture and energy. This accumulating potential energy inevitably manifests itself at Estonia's latitude in the form of localized and destructive weather extremes. Last summer, for example, weather service radar detected tornadoes that caused extensive damage in Viljandi County and Tartu County.

The increasing occurrence of severe storms and giant hail clearly shows that infrastructure will have to withstand stronger natural forces in the future.

"If we recall August 11, for example, hailstones measuring four to six centimeters fell along Estonia's southern border. And during the Song Celebration, tents were blown away by storm-force winds," Pedassaar added.

The role of individual weather anomalies has become so significant in meteorology that professional associations now retrospectively select a separate weather event of the year.

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