Russia's efforts to preserve or expand its sphere of influence are being met with one setback after another. The latest example is Armenia, where, despite heavy-handed pressure from Moscow, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's party emerged victorious — even though Russia had effectively imposed an economic blockade on Armenia.

Before that, there were demands to hold a referendum on whether Armenia should choose the European Union path or remain in the Eurasian Economic Union; the two were said to be mutually exclusive. Vladimir Putin personally threatened Yerevan that choosing the EU would bring Ukraine's fate upon Armenia — that is, war.

Who's to blame? Russia itself

It is well known that the current regime in Moscow seeks to restore an empire — specifically, the Soviet Union's sphere of influence. This ambition also lay behind the war in Ukraine, because, as Zbigniew Brzezinski famously said, without Ukraine, a Russian empire is impossible.

Now, however, it looks as though Russia may ultimately lose Ukraine. There have been other painful defeats as well. Consider the victory of pro-European forces in Moldova; the near-complete drift of Central Asian countries into China's sphere of influence; Viktor Orbán's loss in Hungary; the fall of Assad's regime in Syria; Iran being sidelined by the United States and Israel; and the United States toppling Russia's ally Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, with Cuba said to be "next in line." Russia's influence has also begun to decline in Africa, where it had recently been quite successful.

Russia seems almost intentionally foolish, undermining its own relationships in countries where it seeks to maintain influence. In 2024, Russian air defenses shot down an Azerbaijani passenger plane near Grozny. Instead of apologizing, Moscow adopted an arrogant stance, ruining relations with Baku. Relations with Armenia deteriorated after Azerbaijan seized Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia by force. Russia, despite maintaining a military base in Armenia, did not lift a finger to help what was effectively its ally.

The United States' interesting role

The United States has played an intriguing role in developments in the South Caucasus. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio personally visited Armenia to show support for Pashinyan. President Donald Trump urged Pashinyan to "make Armenia great again." Last August, Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met Trump in Washington, where a joint declaration was signed.

U.S. actions have consistently appeared anti-Moscow. When U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland visited Ukraine ahead of the Maidan events in December 2013, Russia accused the U.S. of interfering in Ukraine's affairs and even organizing a "color revolution." Now, however, Moscow is no longer in such a position, and U.S. involvement in Armenia has simply been swallowed without protest.

The possibility of a domino effect

Finally, a brief note on Iran, already mentioned.

In a strange and indirect way, that country also contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Following the Islamic Revolution in Iran and the hostage crisis at the U.S. embassy in 1979, President Jimmy Carter attempted to rescue the hostages through a military operation.

The attempt ended in disaster, and Carter was not re-elected for a second term. Ronald Reagan became president instead, launched the Strategic Defense Initiative ("Star Wars"), and the strain of competing with it helped exhaust the Soviet Union. Had the conciliatory Carter remained president, the empire's drawn-out collapse might have lasted much longer.

It cannot be said with certainty that events in Armenia will trigger a similar effect in Russia, but one day it may be the final domino that brings everything crashing down — especially when enough of those dominoes have already piled up.

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