New wildlife atlas shows Estonia's large predators expanding ranges
A new atlas of Estonia's mammals shows large predators expanding their range across the country, even as several smaller species have sharply declined or vanished altogether.
The atlas, compiled by the Environment Agency and the Estonian Theriological Society (ETS), compares wildlife data from 1980–1999 and 2000–2025. While it does not measure population size, the atlas maps where species have been observed.
Officials say large predators such as wolves, bears and lynx are now found across most of Estonia, aided by conservation efforts and stricter hunting rules.
"Large carnivores aren't as numerous on the islands as they are on mainland Estonia," said Uudo Timm, a senior specialist at the Environment Agency.
Nonetheless, bears can still reach the islands by swimming across the straits, while wolves and lynx cross when frozen over. "This is how beavers and otters have also made their way back to the larger islands," he added.
Timm said many of these species were once more limited during the Soviet era but have since expanded their range. Otters, for example, are now commonly seen along the coast and can even be spotted catching fish in coastal waters.
New arrivals
The atlas also records four new mammal species in Estonia over the past 25 years.
These include the golden jackal (Canis aureus, or šaakal in Estonian), Mediterranean water shrew (Neomys milleri, väike-vesimutt), wood lemming (Myopus schisticolor, or metslemming) and Western barbastella, (Barbastella barbastellus, or euroopa laikõrv), a European species of bat.
Researchers say some of these are genuine range expansions, while others reflect improved identification and monitoring methods.
Timm said finding species not previously officially recorded in the country is a key outcome of the atlas project and systematic data collection.
"Some of them have been living in Estonia for a long time already, we simply didn't distinguish them [as separate species]," he added.
The official recalled that early expectations for the first atlas decades ago were overly optimistic, based on the assumption that researchers already knew everything about Estonia's mammals.
Nonetheless, the original project ultimately took eight years and led to the identification of several previously unrecorded species.
Today, researchers say the golden jackal is well established in Estonia and is regarded as a natural arrival, dismissing earlier doubts the species might have been introduced by humans.
"It's clear by now the jackal has spread here naturally," said Oliver Kalda, a junior research fellow at the University of Tartu. "It seems to be doing well in coastal areas and is likely here to stay."
Declines and losses
At the same time, several native species remain in decline.
Kalda said the European mink (Mustela lutreola, or naarits) and Siberian flying squirrel (Pteromys volans, or harilik lendorav) remain among Estonia's most threatened mammals, with shrinking habitats and ongoing environmental pressures driving their decline.
Habitation fragmentation is a major issue for species that don't move well, he said, citing loss of old-growth forests as a key factor in the decline in flying squirrels.
The native European mink, meanwhile, is struggling following the introduction of the American mink (Neogale vison, or ameerika naarits) into the wild, coupled with other possible contributing factors such as habitat loss and worsening conditions in smaller waterways.
At the Environment Agency, Timm added that decades-long reintroduction efforts for the European mink may have helped stabilize populations on islands where its main competitor is absent.
The report also highlights the disappearance of dormice species this century, as well as concerns over the ringed seal (Pusa hispida, or viigerhüljes), which depends on stable sea ice conditions for breeding.
"The biggest losses are actually our dormice species," Timm said, citing the hazel dormouse (Muscardinus avellanarius, or pähklinäpp) and garden dormouse (Eliomys quercinus, or lagrits). "We have no records of them in the wild this century."
While researchers say climate change has had a limited impact over the relatively short study period, winters with poor ice conditions have already harmed seal pups in some years.
When ice conditions are good, like this year, newborn pups can survive the critical first weeks of life on the ice, Timm explained. "But in previous years, entire generations of offspring were lost because there simply wasn't any ice."
Data can be misleading
Experts caution that some apparent range expansions in the latest atlas may reflect improved monitoring rather than real ecological change, especially for bats and smaller mammals.
Kalda said distribution maps should not be treated as static snapshots of changes in the wild.
"Sometimes they may simply reflect better data," he explained. "But the range of large predators is certainly one thing that's changed rather significantly."
Still, scientists stress the importance of public reporting to strengthen datasets, saying citizen science, by means of volunteer observers and nature enthusiasts, plays a growing role in tracking wildlife across the country.
Kalda added that even common mammal species should be reported, precisely so they are not mistakenly classified as highly endangered due to gaps in reporting data.
"I'll never tire of repeating that if you come across even regular house mice or other common mammal at home, it's still worth logging in PlutoF, LVA or other similar app," he said.
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Editor: Aili Vahtla
