Opposition MPs told ERR that although support for the government is at a record low, the coalition will not be replaced before the elections. However, some coalition politicians may switch parties.

"It is good news for other parties — such as Parempoolsed — if their MPs appear in parliament even before the elections," Center Party board member Andrei Korobeinik said.

Isamaa Chairman Urmas Reinsalu said this would lead to a minority government and place Reform leader Kristen Michal's continuation as prime minister at great risk.

"Whether this leads to the formation of an alternative government — I think that is more complicated," he added.

EKRE chair Martin Helme believes Estonia will not get a new prime minister in the coming months and that Reform – the largest party in the Riigikogu – will make big changes after the elections.

"Today, they have no reason whatsoever to replace the party leader or the prime minister. No opposition party today — considering the mathematics of the Riigikogu — has any reason to enter the government," Helme said.

A minority government would have to negotiate with the opposition to pass legislation. Korobeinik thinks passing this autumn's state budget could be difficult.

"It seems to me that the only ones who might offer them help are the Social Democrats (SDE), who have offered such help before as well," the Center Party politician said.

But SDE Chairan Lauri Läänemet said he did not know what would happen in the fall."Right now, the Social Democrats have no reason whatsoever to go and support this government," he added.

As parties' election lists are already filling up, those considering switching parties do not have long to decide. Helme said clarity about party-switchers may emerge during this autumn's presidential election.

"I think people are certainly prepared to negotiate over a place on the election list in exchange for supporting one party's presidential candidate or another's in the presidential election," Helme said.

Opposition party leaders did not wish to say if, and with which coalition politicians, they have held negotiations.

"I am like a Swiss bank. If I have positions to make public, then I will do so, but I will not provide any information about confidential conversations. That is my answer," Reinsalu said.

The next Riigikogu election takes place in March 2027.

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