The mosquito life cycle depends directly on the surrounding environmental conditions. For successful reproduction, the insects require favorable temperatures and sufficient standing water, explained Tiit Teder, associate professor of entomology at the University of Tartu.

The entomologist said making precise forecasts is similar to predicting the weather, and long-term outlooks tend to be inaccurate. However, Teder said some springtime predictions can already be made.

"I would venture to say that the spring mosquito yield will be rather modest, because on one hand the winter was low in snow, and on the other hand the spring has also been very low in precipitation," he said.

Since mosquitoes go through their first life stages in water, their development is determined by the temperature.

"Low precipitation and relatively cool water together will likely mean that species which spend the winter as eggs and make up the largest share of spring mosquito abundance will probably fare relatively poorly," the professor noted.

Summer hard to predict

At the same time, a low number of spring insects does not guarantee a mosquito-free summer.

There are as many as 35 different species of biting mosquitoes in Estonia, and those that emerge in summer are biologically different. The number of summer mosquitoes will only become clear in the coming months.

However, one thing is certain — each species needs water to develop, whether in early spring or at the start of summer.

"If the summer is rainy, then those species whose development depends on spring or early summer rains will do well and be abundant," Teder said.

Unlike many other insect species, mosquito populations remain stable in the long term. Human activity and landscape management have not had a devastating effect on them in most environments. Instead, the species have often benefited as people create new breeding opportunities for the insects.

"In forest landscapes, where there are now many deep tracks made by tractors and harvesters that form deep water-filled ruts, these provide ideal places for them to develop together," the scientist explained.

Outside forests, human living patterns also favor mosquitoes.

"They also tend to do well in our gardens, because people have many ponds or water butts that are perfectly suitable for their development. So often we bring this mosquito flood into our own yards ourselves," Teder said.

Although people find mosquitoes annoying, they play an important role in nature. Both larvae and adult insects serve as food for, for example, insect-eating birds and fish.

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