Investment experts Anne Sulling and Erkki Raasuke, both with long experience, have done valuable work by interviewing major foreign investors who state plainly why no major decisions are being made that would genuinely help lift Estonia out of energy poverty: the state has no plan. But because the state's plan is the government's responsibility, the only thing one can be "certain of" when it comes to the squirrels (Reform Party – ed.) is that we can keep dreaming about such a plan and bold decisions.

The retreat of global economic relations and the piling up of crises require governments to take a larger role in planning their countries' economic development. Business leaders confirm this as well: "Estonia's current energy plan is not investable by international standards, nor does it provide investors with predictability and certainty." And we need international players because — again quoting Sulling and Raasuke directly — "investments in major energy infrastructure projects in Estonia will not happen without the participation of foreign investors" and "the state must take an active role rather than acting as a bystander and create suitable support mechanisms."

Foreign investors thus repeated what Estonian entrepreneurs have long been saying: without a concrete plan and investments in Estonia's energy sector, there will be no major progress. Time, however, is short.

We need courage to make decisions

Unfortunately, the government lacks the courage to make decisions. It needs to do the calculations and say what types of generation Estonia's energy portfolio will consist of. In what years do we want these capacities completed, at what scale and how will these production capacities be financed, both during construction and in operation?

There is no need to reinvent the wheel. An energy plan that can be implemented immediately and is economically the best option can rely largely on renewable energy, storage, dispatchable capacity in the form of gas plants and demand management. That approach would also give us the lowest electricity prices and this has now been modeled on Estonia's behalf by competence centers in Sweden and Denmark. If the plan also included several energy-intensive investments such as data centers, that would help lower network fees for all other consumers.

An example of this indecision is the fact that Utilitas now, and Eesti Energia this fall, have all the permits and plans needed to begin building offshore wind farms. The government could have applied to the European Commission last year for state aid approval, created a support scheme for this year and in four years we would have had enough generating capacity to cover all of the electricity imported last year. Instead, businesses are left in uncertainty while Lithuania is offering opportunities to invest in projects there.

No new generating capacity will be built for free. Different forms of energy require financial support from taxpayers. That applies to wind, oil shale and nuclear energy alike.

Long-term investments run into the billions of euros. The cost of building a new oil shale power plant would be two to three times higher than building wind turbines, depending on the location of the wind farm. The cost of a nuclear power plant, in turn, is two to three times higher than oil shale generation. The problem with oil shale and nuclear energy, however, is that the eventual cost of production is higher than that of wind or solar power.

In 2025, solar, wind and storage accounted for 92 percent of all new energy capacity added in Europe. Despite Donald Trump's opposing policies, the same figure in the United States reached as high as 93 percent. Tech giants are building wind farms and battery storage to meet the electricity needs of data centers because it is fast and inexpensive. True, some are also planning nuclear plants in the long term.

Government pretending to work

Estonian business leaders who see the government's work up close say in private conversations, more bluntly than foreigners do, that the lack of political courage has led the government merely to pretend to be addressing Estonia's energy problems.

Said to be "in progress" is everything that will not bring new generating capacity within the next five years. That way, the government can claim that something is being done while also trying to avoid criticism from Isamaa and the Center Party. In reality, new generating capacity requires specific state support schemes and the Reform Party fears every decision that would require taxpayers to contribute financially.

The government is pretending to act, for example, by developing guarantee measures that, according to business leaders, are unnecessary and will not bring in investment. Thousands of working hours are being spent on nuclear power legislation and planning, yet no electricity will come from that within the next 10 years. Wind farm planning continues to suffer setbacks because there is so much confusion among the public and the planned €1 million support measures will not solve that problem.

The absence of a plan is illustrated by Elering's announcement that it intends to build gas plants in Estonia with a total capacity of 900 megawatts to cover peak demand. This comes at a time when Estonia has no plan or financing schemes for building baseload generation. Where has battery storage gone in this model? Is this level of dependence on natural gas compatible with our security outlook and if oil shale power plants must be shut down in a few years, what will the broader impact be?

Just to be safe, it is probably still worth noting that the desire of Isamaa and the Center Party to produce the needed electricity from oil shale is not an alternative for investors. Economically unprofitable investments to produce expensive electricity are not even considered, which is why investors do not talk about oil shale either.

The competitiveness of Estonian companies in foreign markets depends significantly on energy prices. The more we delay building new capacity, the more we hold back economic development. More than that, relying on imported electricity sends money directly out of the Estonian economy; for example, in 2025, all of us were handed a bill of nearly €300 million.

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