Many of its key tenets are already coming apart, while Israel's strikes on Lebanon are also sustaining the risk of escalation in the region, Arras told "Ringvaade".

While on Tuesday U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened to destroy all of Iran's civilization, by Wednesday a ceasefire had been reached. So did the threat really work?

Trump even stated that Iran would be sent back to the Stone Age, but then, just a few hours later, a kind of golden age had already arrived in the Middle East.

So perhaps the man is indeed capable [of doing so].

The man is highly capable, of that there is no doubt. Unfortunately, this is real life, even though at times it feels like watching a thrilling Hollywood blockbuster.

But how exactly was this ceasefire achieved, and under what conditions?

We don't actually know how they reached this. Just an hour and a half before the pledged deadline — when he had said he would begin destroying civilization — Trump announced that an agreement had been reached. The ceasefire took effect immediately and is supposedly based on a ten-point plan.

What was interesting at that moment was that both Iran and the U.S. seemed to be cheering and announcing that something amazing had been agreed on. At the same time, nothing had actually been agreed except that a ceasefire would take effect for two weeks and that negotiations would begin.

And that the Strait of Hormuz will allow ships through for two weeks, so the outlook on fuel prices should be better?

In the short term, that is to be expected. The condition for passing through the Strait of Hormuz is that it remains under Iranian defense forces' control. The first ships have already passed through. How long this will last is another matter.

Although two weeks have been agreed on, the ceasefire is highly fragile, as several aspects that were supposedly agreed upon are already not being followed up on. Israel has been continuing its strikes in Lebanon, which is certainly one area where the escalation could continue — albeit not the only one.

The situation in Iran remains tense, as no one knows exactly where this may lead, yet there is also a sense of triumph as Iran has demonstrated its strength.

I believe that opinions may vary greatly within this 90-million-strong country. While the general public may feel that something significant has been achieved, Iran's stated conditions strongly contradict what the U.S. wants.

For example, one of the U.S.' demands is that uranium enrichment must not continue under any circumstances. They have stated that Iran must hand over all its enriched uranium. If they do not, while it is unclear how, [Vice President] J.D. Vance said they would go there themselves and get it — perhaps even sending in their own workers; we don't exactly know.

These developments still lie ahead, while at the same time the ceasefire was announced, Israel carried out its biggest strike in Lebanon of the past month. What exactly has Israel been doing in Lebanon for an entire month? Now ground forces are also involved, but to be frank, the media has not provided much coverage of what is happening there.

This is a long story, as is the entire escalation in the Middle East region. Israel and Hezbollah, the latter defined as a terrorist organization, have been at war for a long time. Hezbollah gained real strength in the early 1980s, when Israel invaded southern Lebanon. That's where things truly began, and, inspired by the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Hezbollah started building up its power. Since then, they have taken turns in bombing each other. This is a prolonged, deliberate military conflict and a war of attrition being utilized by both sides.

And what about now? Israel is striking Lebanese territory. A quarter of the population is already displaced — meaning a major refugee crisis is imminent. So is this a war crime?

It is certainly not good optics, but it is also unclear what was actually agreed on. According to Iran, the peace terms included stopping attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. At the same time, the U.S. seems to have implicitly accepted that Israel will be continuing its military operations there. Things have not really been clarified on this.

What is the behind-the-scenes objective? It is said that the fight is against Hezbollah, but what is being achieved?

Hezbollah represents a direct threat to Israel, as its military actions towards Israel have been consistent. [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu likely needs to reinforce the message that he continues to defend Israel and stand for its people's interests.

At the same time, the people in Israel are far from united, and the opposition is extremely angry. The opposition leader (Yair Lapid — ed.) has clearly stated that Netanyahu's current actions are the greatest diplomatic catastrophe in history. There is not only military but also political chaos across the region.

Another issue lies within Lebanon itself, where there is still a parliament and government, and increasingly more voices are opposed to the idea that Hezbollah can speak for the entire nation. It is highly complex, but the tragedy is that people are suffering. The bombing is no longer limited to military or strategic targets — civilians are getting bombed at home. It is all very tragic.

Can we draw a parallel here between the Russia–Ukraine war and what Israel is currently doing in Lebanon?

Yes, certainly we can. Rules as agreed are not being respected, and this does not merely refer to the current situation. If we look at what has been taking place in the Palestinian territories over the past couple of years, international law has not been followed there either.

If we look at percentages, Israel has currently occupied 14 percent of Lebanon. By comparison, Russia has occupied 19 percent of Ukraine's territory, so the scale is somewhat similar. Why don't we hear many statements from world leaders on this issue? Do we not want to hear them, or have there simply not been many?

But let's take a look at the Strait of Hormuz and its global impact. If we examine Trump's behavior, it appears that the situation was deliberately stepped up initially, in order to eventually achieve de-escalation, meaning peace negotiations.

Since Trump has been getting a lot of domestic criticism in the U.S. — although his support among voters remains high — the U.S. media is increasingly discussing whether Iran could become the next Iraq for the U.S. We recall from history how that ended up. So the stakes are very high. And we must always bear in mind how actions in global politics impact domestic politics.

Background:

The U.S. and Iran agreed at the 11th hour on Tuesday to a ceasefire of two weeks, a stock-in-trade Donald Trump timespan, just before his Truth Social-announced deadline to obliterate Iran was set to expire. Tehran has agreed to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Another litmus test is, with the strait open, what proportion of shipping opts to take the risk of passing through.

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