Ukrainian drones attacked Russia's Baltic Sea ports and oil terminals last week and the large-scale fires that followed released significant amounts of pollutants into the air.

The impact may be felt in Estonia, depending on the weather in the coming days.

The spread of smoke depends primarily on wind direction and strength. Forecasts show the wind may blow in a northeast direction overnight on Tuesday, which would push the smoke from Ust-Luga toward Estonia.

"Monitoring stations will measure it, and levels may be quite high, especially at stations near Narva and Sinimäe if the smoke passes directly over," said Marko Kaasik, associate professor of air pollution modeling at the University of Tartu.

He stressed that there is no need for excessive concern about health impacts. "The smoke plume is relatively narrow and moves on quickly. At distances of tens of kilometers, it is no longer concentrated enough to cause direct health risks," Kaasik said.

Hot air rising from the fire carries pollution particles higher into the atmosphere, the associate professor explained: "Some of the pollution rises quite high and disperses during ascent. Part of it remains closer to the ground, but overall significant dispersion takes place."

Visible in Tallinn or Tartu

By the time the smoke reaches Estonia, it is no longer dangerous, but it may still have a noticeable odor or visible haze. "With favorable winds, it will likely be noticeable even in Tallinn and Tartu," Kaasik added.

As light rain is forecast, this may help reduce air pollution by binding particles and bringing them to the ground. However, the expert noted that light rain may not wash out all particles, especially if the pollution source is relatively close.

The environmental impact will be the most severe in the immediate vicinity of the fire, as burning petroleum products release large amounts of soot and organic compounds.

"The impact can be quite toxic for both people and nature, as petroleum products and other materials are burning. By the time it reaches Estonia, however, the pollution has already dispersed significantly," Kaasik said.

He added that such short-term episodes generally have a smaller impact than continuous industrial pollution. "It is temporary and lasts a relatively short time. Long-term pollution sources have a much greater impact," he said.

Hans Orru, professor of environmental health at the University of Tartu, said the effects of smoke on human health are well known from studying forest fires.

"Such smoke can cause respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and exacerbate chronic conditions," he said. The most vulnerable groups include people with chronic illnesses, the elderly, children, and pregnant women.

In the case of oil fires, the risk is somewhat higher than with typical forest fires, as combustion releases a wider range of chemical compounds. "The color of the smoke gives an indication of its hazard: if it is jet black, it contains a lot of soot and organic substances," he explained.

Although the Ust-Luga port is only about 25 kilometers in a straight line from Narva, smoke can spread much farther. "It is entirely normal for smoke to travel hundreds or even thousands of kilometers," the professor said.

At the same time, he stressed that the intensity decreases with distance.

"We have been fortunate that the wind has so far been blowing in another direction. If it changes, the pollution will first reach Ida-Viru County and may affect air quality there," he added.

What can people do?

Orru said people can protect themselves from smoke to some extent. The most important thing is to monitor air quality and your well-being.

In the event of possible smoke spread, he recommended keeping windows closed and, if necessary, reducing ventilation, especially if the smell of smoke is noticeable.

Risk groups should, if possible, stay indoors.

It is also important to pay attention to your surroundings. "Sometimes smaller amounts of pollution may not be detectable by smell, but in the case of larger fires, it is clearly noticeable," he said.

Although individual fires do not pose a major long-term threat, Kaasik also highlighted broader impacts.

"The environmental impact of military conflicts, including greenhouse gas emissions, should be taken more into account in climate policy," he noted. "Emissions associated with wars, including greenhouse gases, have so far not been sufficiently accounted for, even though smaller impacts are considered."

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