Rise in consumer price index driven by higher food costs
According to Statistics Estonia, consumer prices in Estonia rose 3.2 percent in February from the same month in 2025, and 0.75 percent from January. The overall increase is due to rising food prices, which account for a significant proportion of general inflation.
According to Lenno Uusküla, chief economist at Luminor, January brought an unpleasant surprise in terms of electricity prices.
Food prices in February also rose.
"Compared to January, food prices have risen by 1.1 percent, and by 4.5 percent over the course of the year. This is a noticeable increase," said Uusküla.
The rise in food prices has continued in the first two months of 2026, said Kristjan Anderson, head of business accounting at supermarket chain Selver.
"Food prices rose by 6 percent, making it one of the fastest-rising product groups, and this trend is unlikely to change. Fresh pork has seen the biggest price increase. Customers can already see that in the price of minced meat," Anderson said
According to Anderson, the average price rise for food products this year should remain below five percent. In the second half of the year, however, it will stabilize at 3–4 percent.
According to Oleg Grossi, owner of Grossi food products, while prices have risen, economic growth is being slowed by very strong competition.
"Domestically-produced Estonian products have become more expensive. It is not that Estonians don't prefer Estonian products, but simply that when the price of an Estonian product becomes more expensive than an imported product, people buy the imported product," Grossi explained.
"We cannot make classic price adjustments in retail, by raising fuel prices 2, 15, or 20 percent, and then adding five percent to food prices, for example. Prices are not set that way. Prices are determined on the free market, and no one wants to be the first to raise them," Grossi said.
In January, the annual consumer price index grew by 3.7 percent. In February, the figure was already slightly lower, at 3.5 percent.
If the war in the Middle East does not lead to any major unexpected developments, price growth should slow down by the end of the year, Uusküla said.
"Currently, we expect an average price increase of 3 percent on year, but as we already saw part of this price increase last year, the actual price increase over the course of this year could stay under 3 percent," added Uusküla.
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Editor: Märten Hallismaa, Michael Cole
Source: "Aktuaalne kaamera"
