There has been tension between President Alar Karis and the government before; the interview given in the United Arab Emirates is not their first misunderstanding, said political scientist Ott Lumi.

"It started back in Kazakhstan and now a new angle of attack has emerged. That's the issue here. The president's rhetoric wasn't very direct. It created an opening through which he could be attacked," Lumi said.

According to Lumi, the current coalition does not support Karis's re-election. However, he said he cannot predict what might happen in the Electoral College where the election would move if the Riigikogu fails to elect the president.

Tarmo Jüristo, head of the Liberal Citizen Foundation (SALK) think tank, noted that Karis himself has sent signals that he may not seek a second term.

And if Karis doesn't want to serve a second term, it doesn't matter who supports him or not, Jüristo said.

However, if Karis does decide to run, Jüristo sees his chances of being elected by the Riigikogu as zero. In the electoral college, though, there is some chance he could be re-elected, he believes.

Political scientist Martin Mölder said that government members' interpretation of Karis's remarks differs from what the president actually said and meant.

According to Mölder, it was already clear earlier that the government does not support Karis. "This is not the first conflict between the government and the president. Even during the first clash, it was evident that relations were not good," Mölder said.

Supportive statements about Karis have come from the opposition Center Party and Isamaa, while the Social Democrats have criticized the disconnect between the government and the president's messaging.

Jüristo said the Center Party may have its own reasons for supporting Karis.

Specifically, according to a public opinion survey by the Government Office, trust in the presidency has increased among non-Estonian-speaking residents after the president declined to promulgate a law that would have restricted the activities of the Russian Orthodox Church in Estonia.

As for Isamaa, Jüristo said the party is seizing every opportunity to position itself as the leading force in the opposition.

Mölder said what is happening now is part of setting the stage, but he cannot yet say who the main character stepping onto that stage will be. "The presidential election is gaining momentum," Mölder said.

Lumi also said that everything is still open. "Who the actual candidate is will become clear later. Different people have started to step forward," Lumi said.

He added that the current presidential election is a prelude to the next Riigikogu elections, which makes the process less random than usual.

"Certainly, the 'making' of the president carries much more weight," Lumi said.

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