According to Ain Kallis, a senior specialist at the Environmental Agency, people's memory of the weather is surprisingly short. It takes just five years for past experiences to fade. For instance, winters in 2010 and 2011 — when snow was exceptionally deep, reaching up to the eaves — are now only vaguely remembered. Because that memory has faded for many, this winter's snowfall and the prolonged subzero temperatures feel like something extraordinary.

Our perception and labeling of cold have also changed noticeably. Kallis recalls that in his youth, the term "deep freeze" (pakane in Estonian) referred to nighttime temperatures between minus 20 and minus 25 degrees Celsius. These days, however, media outlets may describe minus 12 degrees as a deep freeze.

This shift isn't purely psychological, though. Kallis believes wind chill plays a significant role. For example, when thermometers in Tartu showed minus 14 degrees Celsius on Thursday morning, the wind made it feel more like minus 20. It's that perceived cold, he says, that makes the current weather feel harsh to people.

According to Kallis, after an exceptionally mild December, this January has indeed been a sharp turn toward colder conditions. Yet similar complaints are being voiced elsewhere in the world. The weather has become more erratic and people have grown more accustomed to comfort. Even in neighboring Russia, there's growing recognition that people are no longer used to a true "Russian winter." When the temperature drops 20 degrees below zero, it feels brutal — even though in some parts of the country, residents must cope with temperatures as low as minus 40.

Where's the warming?

Cold snaps often raise the question: how can the climate be warming if it's so cold outside? According to Ain Kallis, climatologists assess trends over 30-year periods, since individual years are not decisive. For example, between 1901 and 1930, Estonia's average annual temperature was 4.7 degrees Celsius. In the current baseline period, from 1991 to 2020, that average has risen to 6.3 degrees — a nearly two-degree increase, which is a significant change in climate terms.

Moreover, sharp weather fluctuations are characteristic of the Baltic Sea region. In January 1987, Estonia recorded the coldest temperatures in its history, surpassing even the infamous wartime deep freezes. Yet just two years later, in 1989, the country experienced its warmest year on record. Two extreme opposites occurred practically back to back.

In this context, occasional colder years are simply part of the climate's natural variability. Even if Estonia sees three to five consecutive snowy and cold winters, it would only represent a temporary deviation. Since the 1950s and especially over the past half-century, Estonia's average air temperature has been steadily and unmistakably rising.

Weather as an imported commodity

Estonia's weather is largely shaped by external influences — it is, so to speak, an imported product. Locally generated weather occurs only during summer thunderstorms; the rest of the time, conditions are driven by large pressure systems. The current cold spell is being caused by a massive high-pressure area originating in Siberia and stretching across the Russian plain, which has now expanded over the Baltic Sea. This system blocks the warmer cyclones coming from the west, redirecting them and their snowfall toward Southern Europe.

Because anticyclones lack a warming cloud cover, the ground cools rapidly under clear skies, especially around sunrise. This mechanism can cause temperatures to drop below minus 30 degrees Celsius in some areas.

Climate changes are being keenly felt by both foresters and farmers. Warmer winters mean softer ground, which hampers logging operations, and they also contribute to the spread of pests. For instance, according to Kallis, the spruce bark beetle now produces two generations per year. On the other hand, the changing climate also opens the door to growing new crops. While corn was once considered a subtropical plant, varieties suited to Estonia's climate have now been developed and there are even trials underway for cultivating sweet potatoes.

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