Researcher: Temperatures in Estonia could drop to -30 by the start of February
Senior researcher at Tallinn University and coastal marine geologist Hannes Tõnisson is forecasting a prolonged cold spell, meaning air temperatures may not rise above freezing before February 24. In the meantime, several cold weather records could be broken.
This January has been a few degrees colder than average and forecasts suggest that winter weather isn't going anywhere soon. According to Tõnisson, the current cold snap is set to bring some of the lowest temperatures of the season in early February.
"Around February 2 or 3, it wouldn't be surprising if new cold records are set in Estonia and temperatures could drop close to minus 30 degrees," Tõnisson said. This will be accompanied by strong winds in some areas, making conditions feel even more unpleasant.
After the deep freeze at the start of February, milder winter weather is expected, with temperatures hovering between minus 5 and minus 10 degrees Celsius. However, no significant warming is in sight.
"According to long-range forecasts, it doesn't look like we'll see temperatures above freezing before Independence Day," the researcher noted. While sunshine may briefly bring temperatures near or slightly above zero, the overall trend will remain below freezing.
More snow
While the extreme cold at the beginning of February is forecast to pass without precipitation, a shift in weather conditions is expected as the month progresses. Starting around February 2 or 3, a significant amount of precipitation may reach Estonia.
Tõnisson advises snow removal crews to be prepared: "From that point on, we could see quite a bit of snowy and blustery weather. So if you're clearing roads, push the snow piles a bit farther off to the side, just in case — leave room for the next snowfall."
On the other hand, this is good news for winter sports enthusiasts as weather conditions will remain favorable for skiing, at least in the coming weeks.
The senior researcher is confident in predicting good trail conditions for the upcoming Tartu Marathon. "I don't think it's an overstatement to say we can expect pretty decent winter weather leading up to the Tartu Marathon," he said.
Weak polar vortex to blame
The current deep freeze is being driven by an atmospheric phenomenon known as the polar vortex. A strong vortex usually keeps cold air trapped over the polar regions, but right now, the vortex is weak.
"When the vortex is weak, pockets of cold air can spill out and reach quite far south," Tõnisson explained. This results in Arctic air masses traveling unusually far, in some cases even reaching the Mediterranean.
Scientists link the weakening of the polar vortex to climate change, particularly the rapid warming of the Arctic. As the temperature contrast between the poles and lower latitudes decreases, cold air becomes less stable and more prone to drifting southward.
"Since the Arctic is warming the fastest, it's becoming increasingly common for cold air to push much farther south," Tõnisson added. The same phenomenon is currently driving extreme weather conditions in the United States as well.
Although the sun is already climbing higher in the Estonian sky, true spring is likely to be slow to arrive this year, especially along the coast, where lingering winter chill is significantly lowering sea temperatures.
"Because the sea has cooled considerably this year and there's quite a bit of ice, melting will take about a month," Tõnisson predicted. As a result, spring may take longer than usual to reach the coastal areas.
--
Editor: Marcus Turovski, Jaan-Juhan Oidermaa
Source: Terevisioon
