European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius recently floated the idea of creating a joint European military unit of 100,000 troops that could, if necessary, replace the U.S. presence on the continent. Estonian politicians, however, consider the proposal unrealistic and duplicative of NATO structures.

Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform) explained that military planning and operational command for European defense must take place within the NATO framework. According to the minister, the European Union's primary role is to support member states — particularly in financial planning, joint procurement and the coordination of common standards.

"A so-called European army is certainly not what we need right now. It's important to uphold the principle that nation-states themselves decide on defense matters and the size of their armed forces. From a military planning standpoint, NATO remains the primary partner for member states," Pevkur emphasized.

Raimond Kaljulaid, a member of the Riigikogu National Defense Committee, added that a 100,000-strong unit would not shift the strategic balance in the face of the Russian threat. "The Russians have well over a million men under arms. The unit proposed by Kubilius would not be able to seriously challenge today's Russian military," Kaljulaid noted. He also stressed that no European force could replace the United States' logistical capabilities and depth of resources — a reality that, in his view, will remain unchanged for a long time.

Kaljulaid also pointed to the economic realities of the situation. In his view, full "strategic autonomy" is a contradictory concept, given how deeply intertwined Western defense industries are. "It's impossible to imagine a scenario where European and U.S. defense industries do not cooperate. Economic interests work in favor of maintaining the transatlantic link," Kaljulaid said.

Ilves: We have been living in an illusion

While current political leaders emphasize pragmatic cooperation, former President Toomas Hendrik Ilves painted a much bleaker picture of the security situation. In his view, European leaders still fail to grasp that the United States' attitude toward Europe has fundamentally changed.

"We've been living under the illusion of a peace dividend for 35 years and now we're in a situation where our defense is underdeveloped and we're heavily reliant on the U.S.," Ilves said.

As an example of this shift, he pointed to a recent dispute over Greenland, which he said clearly reflects the current U.S. administration's hostility toward Europe.

"NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said earlier this week that everything is just fine. Yet the leader of Greenland and Denmark's foreign minister left their meeting with the U.S. vice president looking grim. Rutte is now engaging in textbook ostrich politics, saying 'everything is fine,' even though it's clear to anyone that it isn't. And European Commission President von der Leyen hasn't shown much courage either — she clearly doesn't want to say anything critical," Ilves remarked.

According to Ilves, passivity is not an option and lamenting the situation will do no good.

"There is a lot of work ahead. That doesn't just mean building a large, 100,000-strong defense force — though that must happen too — it also means Europe must undertake sweeping reforms quickly if it is to be autonomous and independent," Ilves stressed.

The former president said the European Union needs a common security council similar to the U.S. National Security Council, one that includes experts on a permanent basis.

"But more broadly, we need much more significant reforms. First among them should be a unified, integrated capital market, which would allow for substantially more investment. We could direct those investments into high technology, because the truth is, we're not only dependent on America's arms industry or military — we're entirely dependent on American technology. They even joke about Europe's technological backwardness. Everything we use in high tech comes from the U.S.," Ilves said.

In his view, the EU must also overcome long-standing resistance to joint borrowing. Several member states have opposed it for decades.

However, Pevkur, Kaljulaid and Ilves agree on one point: Europe's defense spending must increase. That is the first and essential step for Europe to be able to stand on its own when it comes to defending itself.

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