What do you mean by your statement that without the Social Democrats, it's essentially impossible to agree on a presidential candidate to be elected by the Riigikogu?

According to the Constitution, the Riigikogu should be the place where the president is elected. If we look at the math in the Riigikogu, then if the Social Democrats were to be left out, all the remaining MPs would essentially have to find common ground. That would include Eesti 200, the Reform Party, EKRE, Isamaa and the Center Party, based on how many seats they hold altogether. I find that highly unlikely.

It's much more probable that the Social Democrats, the governing coalition and maybe a few others — say, a few unaffiliated MPs — will manage to find some common ground. But I have to stress that this can't be done in such a way where the coalition council comes up with a name and then announces: "Here's our candidate, now everyone should get behind them."

When it comes to finding common ground in a presidential election, the Riigikogu has forums for that, like the Council of Elders or meetings between party leaders where things start from scratch and ideally lead to a shared consensus. Sometimes I feel the governing coalition forgets that their support in society isn't exactly overwhelming — they tend to see themselves as much more significant than they actually are.

It is precisely the governing parties, holding only a slim majority in the Riigikogu, that have started discussing this in the coalition council. Your party colleague Raimond Kaljulaid has said that if the coalition were to put forward a candidate on its own, it would be like giving that person the kiss of Judas — no one would want to work with them. So under what conditions would the Social Democrats be willing to cooperate with the coalition? I assume they're hoping for your support until the next Riigikogu elections, for the Social Democrats to back the coalition's initiatives.

We have absolutely no reason to support the coalition's initiatives, especially considering that in just about every year-end interview, the prime minister made a point of singling out the Social Democrats, emphasizing our role and how little trust there is between us.

I've said this before as well: on the day the governing coalition loses its majority in parliament, the Social Democrats, together with other opposition parties, will definitely initiate a vote of no confidence against the prime minister — and it will pass. At that point, a new situation arises, one where the question becomes: who will be the next prime minister and what kind of coalition will lead Estonia moving forward? There's no point in raising any false hopes that the Social Democrats are some kind of fixer for this coalition or a backup option for them. On the contrary, I'm confident we'll reach a point where we can clearly state our own expectations and then it'll be up to whatever is left of the coalition to deal with that.

As for the presidential elections, looking back at history, it's often the case that when someone quietly comes up with their favorite candidate and tries to force or sell them to others, it usually doesn't end well. Typically, that person does not become president. We've also seen cases where an attempt like that has led to the collapse of an entire governing alliance.

The only way to elect a president is to find common ground around the individual — not around party platforms, budget priorities or proposed legislation. Those are not the kinds of issues that should be tied to a presidential election. What matters is the person.

That said, it's still too early to seriously discuss names. The conversation should be more about what that person needs to be capable of. I think foreign policy plays a very important role, as well as the values the person stands for — ideally, values that support democratic freedoms and human rights. This person must also be able to explain and defend, in a changing world, what has brought Estonia success so far and kept us independent. That part is crucial.

But what if the Social Democrats themselves were able to propose a presidential candidate to the governing coalition? What would that change?

That's not something we're ruling out. In the end, it doesn't really matter who's the first to say a name at the table. That name could come from the Social Democrats or from another party. What matters is that the outcome is reached together and there's a shared agreement in the end.

What makes the situation significantly more complicated is the fact that the president will be elected at the end of summer. Will the current governing coalition still have a majority in parliament by then? I have my doubts. If they no longer hold a majority, that could change the parliamentary math and the political dynamics — maybe they'll need more support from independent MPs or even partial backing from another party.

That's why I think it's too early to speak with any certainty. Maybe by May we'll be in a better position to talk more definitively and start making agreements that can actually hold.

But is it likely that the Reform Party would ask for your support on its initiatives in the Riigikogu in exchange for agreeing on a joint presidential candidate?

I don't understand that logic at all. If the Reform Party has a presidential candidate in mind and wants the Social Democrats to support that person, why should that mean we also have to back some government initiative in the Riigikogu? I don't see any logic in that whatsoever.

In exchange for finding a joint candidate, I mean. You think that's a completely outrageous idea?

I do think it's an outrageous idea, yes. Since the governing coalition holds the most seats in parliament, the prime minister also bears the greatest responsibility for making sure things function in Estonia and that a president gets elected. That responsibility lies on Kristen Michal's shoulders; to then ask for additional support in order to fulfill that responsibility — I don't think there's much room for discussion there.

But you yourself said the coalition is starting to fall apart — surely they'll need support from somewhere.

I still don't see any reason why the Social Democrats should link the presidential election to the regular work of the Riigikogu. I can't imagine any kind of deal like that being made. Kristen Michal has spent the past year emphasizing how difficult it is for him to work with the Social Democrats in governing the country. I don't see how we're suddenly supposed to rediscover that cooperation now. On the contrary — once a minority government emerges, the current prime minister will clearly face a vote of no confidence. Who the new prime minister is and what kind of coalition will follow remains to be seen. That may not prevent an agreement on the presidential election, but it could certainly change things.

How, in your view, could the government lose its majority before the presidential election?

I still believe that at some point, someone from Eesti 200 will leave. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of someone from the Reform Party switching to another party either, but it's almost certain to happen within Eesti 200. I've said before that a logical time for that would be January or February.

Maybe it won't happen — but let's not forget that in terms of campaign logic, if someone from Eesti 200 wants to run again and get back into the Riigikogu, they'll likely need to run under a different party's banner. By September, campaign posters are going up and election videos are being filmed. That means the person has already made their decision earlier and that earlier period happens to fall right before the presidential election.

All of this is bound to happen sooner or later. I tend to think it'll happen before summer, but it could also come later. The current governing coalition is quite fragile and in such a delicate situation, making bold statements — like deciding on a presidential candidate in the coalition council — seems a bit premature.

Have any Eesti 200 members spoken with the Social Democrats about possibly joining you or have you personally invited anyone?

No one has approached us, but of course, last year we did tell quite a few people from Eesti 200 that it would make sense for them to join the Social Democrats. There are people there who share our worldview. What they ultimately choose to do, I don't know. We've had those conversations, but we don't make decisions on anyone's behalf.

The Social Democrats are moving ahead with putting together our electoral lists and soon we'll be reaching the stage where we start agreeing on the key positions. If someone still wants to join, this is about the time to do it. But we don't operate on Eesti 200's schedule — we have our own pace and our own logic.

Has your party discussed what kind of individuals might seem appealing as presidential candidates for the Social Democrats?

To be honest, no, we haven't. As I said, no agreement can realistically be reached before summer and there's still time. The first step is for the parties to agree on a format or a framework — on who shares a genuine willingness to find a new president for Estonia. Once that's agreed upon, then we can move on to discussing names.

In the end, any names mentioned will remain just expressions of goodwill until we have more certainty about the parliamentary math by the time of the presidential election. It seems to me that this time around, there's a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the presidential election — mostly due to a very weak governing coalition, which at some point is likely to lose its majority.

If some MPs, for example, move toward Isamaa or the Center Party, one set of political dynamics will emerge and it'll be harder to elect a president in parliament. If they come to the Social Democrats, it won't change the math. But we'll see how things play out.

How likely is it that members of Eesti 200 would join, for example, the Center Party or Isamaa?

I honestly couldn't say — I'm not in Eesti 200.

That would be rather surprising, wouldn't it?

It would be surprising, yes, but I wouldn't rule anything out.

You haven't ruled out the potential re-election of Alar Karis. Why do you think he's currently facing such criticism from the coalition parties?

It's hard for me to say what exactly is going on between the government and the president — I haven't been involved in those discussions. The details of how the government communicates with the president, where their views differ and what the reasons are — those things usually aren't made public or talked about in the Riigikogu hallways.

That said, it's not unusual for governments and presidents to occasionally have differing views — that's been the case with every president, so there's nothing new in that. In Alar Karis's case, we're talking about a president who has managed to maintain stability in Estonia. If we recall difficult moments like the COVID crisis, the president was able to provide the public with strong support, drawing on his expertise and knowledge.

So the Social Democrats would support Karis if he decided to run again?

It only makes sense to talk about support once there's a possibility of reaching an agreement with other parties as well. Otherwise, we end up in a situation where every party backs a different candidate. It's more reasonable to have that conversation when we know that there's the potential for broad common ground.

But it's still worth talking about sympathies and who you think would make a good head of state for Estonia. For example, Urmas Paet has said he's open to running. Do you feel a similar sense of support for him as you do for Alar Karis?

Urmas Paet is certainly a great guy and very knowledgeable in foreign policy. There are also other very capable people within both the Reform Party and the Social Democrats. But it only makes sense to start talking about specific individuals once we understand where the broadest common ground lies.

Often, those who are put forward too early or whose drums start beating right away don't end up becoming president. It's better to approach this a bit more calmly. That doesn't mean we shouldn't talk about individuals at all, but so far, there hasn't even been a single discussion at the level of party leaders about finding common ground. That needs to happen first, before we start publicly throwing out names.

Do you think Urmas Paet could garner enough support in the Riigikogu?

I haven't heard that yet. I don't even know if he has the full backing of the Reform Party — I don't have that information.

There's also been a lot of talk about Ülle Madise.

In addition to [Chancellor of Justice] Ülle Madise, many other people have been mentioned, all of whom would make strong presidential candidates. Ülle Madise has been considered as a potential candidate in the past as well. There have certainly been people within the Social Democrats who have had a favorable view of her. So yes, Ülle Madise and many of the others highlighted in the media over the past week definitely have the potential to be a good president for Estonia.

Could one of those candidates also be Tõnu Viik who is stepping down from his position as rector [of Tallinn University]?

I hold Tõnu Viik in very high regard, but that's actually the first time I've heard his name mentioned in this context. I did read somewhere that Tiit Land, the current rector of Tallinn University of Technology, had been suggested. But Tõnu Viik could certainly be added to that list as well. Both rectors are people who have a deep understanding of how society functions and who have a solid set of values. They both definitely have presidential potential.

Listening to you now and looking at how the coalition is operating, it seems rather unlikely that the Riigikogu will manage to agree on and elect a joint presidential candidate. The way you talk about the coalition doesn't inspire much confidence that a good-faith consensus will be reached.

If there's a genuine will, then yes — we will get there. I'm just speaking honestly and directly about how things really are. Anyone who has followed presidential elections or been involved in politics knows that this isn't something one group can push through by selling their preferred candidate to others — it has to be a joint decision.

I'm also being honest about the fact that the coalition is in a pretty fragile state and I believe they themselves are aware of that. There's no point in making an agreement a month from now, only to find out two months later that someone has left the coalition side and the agreement can no longer be upheld. These are real-world considerations — not some sort of obstacle or conflict.

Still, I don't see any real willingness emerging right now. The coalition parties are doing their own thing. The economic situation and tax decisions, which might make people in Estonia just a little bit better off this year, could give them more confidence. Maybe their ratings will start to rise too. You keep talking about finding common ground and the other opposition parties are also each pursuing their own line. Why not just say it outright — that electing a president in the Riigikogu isn't very likely and we're headed to the Electoral College?

I don't agree with that. We haven't even discussed this issue yet at the level of party leaders. At this point, I actually think it's quite likely that the president will be elected in the Riigikogu and that common ground will be found. That doesn't mean the Social Democrats have to endorse a giveaway where €114 million a year goes to the wealthiest people while others are left paying interest on public debt through their taxes.

Those aren't the kinds of issues that should be brought into this discussion. If they were, we'd never be able to elect a president because, under the Constitution, electing a president requires 68 votes. That means such a large parliamentary majority that someone from the opposition always has to be included. No coalition has ever been able to elect a president on its own.

And that means that even if parties are in the opposition or in government and have different views on day-to-day economic or social issues, that's never been a barrier to eventually electing a president.

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